A Look Back to My Season Outlook

Goaltending: the most important position in the game is the most stable position for the Capitals. Olie Kolzig is a proven goaltender. At 36 he can still carry this team and play a good 50+ games. He came into camp in much better shape this year and the increased quickness is noticable. He still needs to try and limit the number of rebounds he gives up, especially with such a green core of defensemen. Behind him, Brent Johnson can certainly steal some games and showed last year he can play. In his 20 or so starts, he could conceivably win 10 games.

Kolzig did end up playing 54 games and did give up a lot of rebound goals. Johnny started 30 games. He won 6. Both goaltenders had a GAA of 3.00 or above and Olie had a .910 save percentage.

Defense: Youth is the theme for this year. Morrisonn, Eminger, Pothier, Green. What do they all have in common? They're under the age of 30. Only Jamie Heward and Brian Muir have seniority in this group. The problem is that before the lockout, Heward and Muir weren't in the NHL. This team gave up an average of 35 shots last year (28th in the league). Granted, Green and Pothier are an improvement over Biron and Majesky, but this group still has trouble breaking out, getting bodies out from in front of Olie and clearing rebounds. That shot average might go down to 33 a game; but still, over 30 is a LOT.

That Jeff Schultz (38 games, 3 points) was the team's leading +/- rater (+5) for defenseman tells you something about the team's defense this season. The team's big time off-season signing, Brian Pothier was...disappointing. -11, 28 points is disappointing, but he did lead the team in blocked shots (140).
But the team's best defenseman, by far was Shaone Morrisonn. Absent from the stat sheet most nights, he had a +3 rating (3rd on the team), blocked 120 shots, had 38 takeaways (most by a Caps defenseman) and played in 78 games.
Muir was injured most of the year, Heward was traded away at the deadline. Erskine was also injured most of the time. Mike Green did not have incredibly impressive numbers. Steve Eminger continued to make mental mistakes.
Oh, and as a whole, the team allowed 33.3 shots against per game (not bad huh?) which was second worst in the league. The league median for shots against was around 29.

Offense: It starts and ends with Ovechkin. The 52 goal, 106 point man has to have a good season in order for the Caps to succeed. He does have help with Semin and Zednik back in DC and with Pettinger, Zubrus, Clark and Sutherby along with him. The problem: only Zubrus and Zednik have eclipsed 40 points in a season in their careers. At the end of the day, Ovechkin will (barring injury) be good for 100 points, but if that Caps offense is going to run, someone else needs to get close to the 55-60 point area. That is definitely possible for either Zubrus or Clark, who are (currently) playing along with the Russian Dynamo, and for Alexander Semin, who has come out of the gates strong.

Ok, any numbskull could tell that Ovechkin was going to be a driving force for the offense. A 40+ goal season and 90+ point season is still nothing to sniff at. Semin was undoubtedly the Robin Ovechkin desperately needed to take pressure off, but beyond that...the river is dry.
Yes, Zubrus scored a bunch for us while he was here, but a lot of that was (as is becoming apparent) dependent on Ovie's playmaking ability.
Semin managed to be the 55-60 point man I mentioned in October (38 goals, 73 points), but after that you find Chris Clark with 54 points and a plethera of players who didn't crack 40 points or 10 goals (Pettinger's the only other 10+ goal scorer).
The Caps were, once upon a time, a team that could not be stopped offensively (remember those beautiful December days?) but they finished the year as only mediocre (2.85 goals per game, 17th in the league).

The Power Play: Oh. My. God. The problems on the powerplay are too endless to list...but I will anyway. The Caps need to move the puck quickly and with purpose. The point men need to pull the trigger when they have the open shot and have the forwards redirect the puck or bang in the rebounds. Beyond that, they need to figure out how to get the puck in the zone without dumping it (which they inevitably lose and allow the other team to fling it up the boards) and holding the puck in the zone at the points. They need to give up less shorties and with two strong PP units, they should do better than last year.

Ok, let's just go down the list here shall we?
- Move the puck quickly and with purpose? Umm...no one can pass the puck (except Ovechkin), no one can catch a pass (except Ovechkin and Semin) and no one can hold the puck in the zone. Kinda makes it hard to move the puck effectively.
- Point men need to pull the trigger and forwards need to bang in rebounds? Yeah, if there was ever anybody in FRONT of the net. Shots from the outside are fine...when you have people ready to grab those inside shots. The Caps could not get anyone in front of the net to cause havoc.
- Figure out how to get the puck in the zone without dumping it and hold it there? Not even close. First off, they still have not figured out how to pentrated the offensive zone, have one guy carry it in, and wait for his teammates to set up shop. You have an extra player guys...USE HIM. You CAN get the puck into the zone without dumping it! Trust me I've seen it done. On the other side of the coin, Pothier was supposed to be our PP QB...that didn't work. The team still simply flails their stick at the puck, hoping to bat it into the zone, rather than using their body to effectively keep it in.
Oh and they were 23rd in PP percent (16.4).

The Penalty Kill: As bad as the power play is, the PK is worse. The Caps tend to swarm to the puck and get caught behind the net, usually leaving one or two guys camped out around Olie. They need to focus on being aggressive, but holding the box. They can not have their forwards revolving down low because the defensemen are getting caught trying to retrieve the puck at the point. Beyond that, they must clear the screens out from in front of Olie and just clear it as quickly as possible. With a PK ranked near the bottom of the league last year, they can only go up...hopefully.

I did hope. I did. A lot of good it did me? The Caps' PK just broke 80% effectiveness...barely.
They chased the puck A LOT. They got caught behind the net A LOT. They can't figure out how to effectively clear the puck out of the zone (here's a hint guys, hard, and off the glass high!)
They were misserable in clearing the mess out from in front of Olie and let a lot of passes throught the crease. Special teams were slightly better than last year...but they are still nothing that you can be smiling about.

Dark Horses: Alexander Semin might be the most unexpected player to have a huge sophomore year. On a line with Zednik his speed and new-found matured skills could produce 30 goals and 60 points. The other thing that makes him an X-factor is the fact that most teams will be geared towards AO and allow him and Zed to find the twine a little more. He spent two years playing in Russia and that only gave him more time for his skills and body to mature.The other Dark Horse is a fourth line veteran: Donald Brashear. For an enforcer being paid to protect the most valuable player on the Caps, "Brash" could be a big producer. He'll usually be playing with some younger players who are hungry to prove themselves. Plus, in a new city, with a new, big contract, Brashear will want to play well to get a big extension. Plus, he's shown some offensive poise in the first two games.Last but not least, Shaone Morrisonn is the most underrated young defenseman in the league. While he doesn't have a lot of flash or big-hit ability, he can make the plays in his own zone when he has to. He knows what to do with the puck and he has the veteran savvy to make those big plays on his own. He might not put up huge defensive numbers this year, but he will make leaps and bounds toward being the Caps' number one defenseman.

Semin: I'm good. 38 goals, 73 points. Second highest scorer on the team. Even without Zednik most of the year, he was deadly. Teams underestimated him. They won't next year. Kudos to Sasha.
Brashear: The Don did nothing that will make the stats sheets sing, but I tip my hat to him. Along with Clark and Ovechkin, he was hustling. Every game, he was hustling. He scrummed in the corner, got pucks out and made things happen. All of us in the stands cheered whenver Don-ald! got a goal or made some poor scruffy forward a knuckle sammich. For his efforts, he got a 1 year extension, which was absolutely deserved.
And it was also refreshing to see other team's players stealing glances at Don as they were about to line up Ovie. You know what that man's thinking...
Morrisonn: ShaMo! What more do I have to say? Nothing I haven't already said, I imagine. Unquestionably our best d-man and certainly someone I'm confident in who can be our #1 guy one day.
I would like to add to the list, however, a mid-season pickup. Milan Jurcina was a guy that the Bruins discarded for rubble. McPhee traded a meaningless 4th round pick for that "rubble" who was one of our top 3 defensemen this year. Bet the B's fans are scowling at that fleecin!

Overrated: Unfortunately, the two most overrated players are defensemen. Steve Eminger was the 12th pick in 2002. Four years later, he still has not adapted to the speed of the NHL. He can hit, and he has some speed, but he still does not have poise. He hasn't learned to knock the guys in the crease down and has given up plenty of rebound and deflection goals on his watch. His decision-making ability with the puck needs to improve if he wants to be a top notch defenseman, which he has the potential to be.Second, the highest-paid defenseman, Brian Pothier. George McPhee brought in Pothier as a stablizing top defenseman. Heck, he paid him $2.5 million per year to do so. The only problem is that Pothier is not the #1 defenseman the Caps have slotted him to be. In Ottawa, Pothier was usually paired with a veteran as a second pair and had the opportunity to learn from Redden and Chara. He is only 29 and is not a top defenseman in the NHL. Hopefully, that four-year contract will give him time to mature into the top two defenseman he could be, but you can't expect him to give Chara or Redden-like numbers.Finally, Danius Zubrus has STILL not become the star forward the Flyers envisioned when they drafted him in the first round. Now approaching his 30s, Caps fans are still hoping that Zuby will have the breakout year. It may never come. Zubrus is a great power forward, but on a line with a 100 point forward he only scored 42 points. I'm sorry, but Dainus Zubrus will never be a consistent 80 point forward.

Nail on the head here. Eminger has still not emerged into what a 1st round pick defenseman should be...a top line d-man. He finished with the worst +/- rating of any Capital defenseman (-14), and tallied only 1 goal and 17 points.
Pothier is a special case. It's hard to compare his numbers from last year (77 games, 5 goals, 35 points, +29) to this year's (72 games, 3 goals, 28 points, -11) because of the quality of talent he was playing with then (Redden, Chara) as opposed to now (Eminger, Green). Still, he is a $2.5 million defenseman who was brought in to be our Power Play's quarterback, but only scored 2 power play goals and had difficulty holding the zone.

My Outlook: The Caps will be better this year...but not by much. Most people are picking the Caps to finish in 14th in the East, ahead of only the Islanders. I see the Caps finishing 12th, ahead of the Isles, Panthers, and Penguins. Final totals for this year are 80 points.Ovechkin leads all forwards with 54 goals and 110 points. Shaone Morrisonn is the top plus/minus getter with +11. Olie wins 29 games and has a GAA of 3.10. In the end, the Caps don't make the playoffs.

Ok, the Caps finished the same as last year (70 points, 4th worst in the NHL) so I wasn't too far off from that. The "many people" were right about where the Caps would finish, but not who they would finish ahead of. The experts didn't see the Flyers having an abysmal year and trading Forsberg (I didn't either to be truthful) or that the Isles would skyrocked ahead under Ted Nolan. The Caps finished behind the teams I said they would finish ahead of, though to be fair, if they had managed to win some of the "gimme" games against Florida, they might have finished 13th in the East. I was 10 points off from the teams point total, Ovechkin's scoring drought cost him any shot at that top forward spot and he was unable to break the 50 goal plateua. Morrisonn was a +3, tops for those defensemen who played for most of the year (Schultz had a higher +/-, but only played 38 games). Kolzig won fewer games than I predicted, but surprised me and had a lower GAA.

So in the end, I was right about the a lot, but I overestimated the Caps depth, which became apparent as the injury bug struck. If Ovie hadn't had a huge scoring slump and McPhee had upgraded some depth in December, who knows? We might not have to go Golfing right now...

After a Long While Off, the JET is Back and Looking at the Trade Deadline Deals!

It's the most wonderful time of the year! No not Christmas! Trade Deadline Day! And the JET spent it watching the live TSN newscast of the many trades and signings that came about. While there were certainly big trades of high profile players being sent to contenders, all the JET cares about is who got dealt to and fro the Caps. So without further ado...

Trade #1: Richard Zednik to NYI for 2nd round Draft Pick
Now this year, the JET is not a big fan of trading for picks, especially because this draft is rumored to be one of the weakest in recent memory. Second round picks are usually fringe NHL talent and the Isle's pick figures to be around a mid-rounder (so somewhere in the late 40s-early 50s). Whoever the Caps use this pick on will, in all likelihood, not be a player who can step in immediately and probably won't be close to the NHL within 3 years (if ever).
That said, Zednik is a UFA who the Caps couldn't resign. He's been nagged with injury problems and has been inconsistent in scoring. I knew once the Caps traded for him in the offseason that he wouldn't be more than a secondary scoring threat who the Caps would try to use to get some more young assets later in the season. Most people thought Zednik would get traded for the 3rd round draft pick the Caps had previously sent to Montreal. But instead, George McPhee pulled off a 2nd rounder for Zednik. Big ups to McPhee who once again traded a player for a much higher draft pick than he was worth (see Witt for Beech and 1st rounder).

Overall Grade: B

Trade #2: Lawrence Nycholat to OTT for Andy Hedlund, 6th round pick
This is an even trade, in every sense. It's literally, one minor league defenseman for another. The only difference is the 6th round pick coming the Caps way which can be disregarded since even in very strong drafts (which I mentioned, this is not) there are not many NHL players or top AHL players that are drafted in the 6th round.
There is no TSN scouting report on Hedlund, so there is nothing to expect from him. All in all, this trade was probably made to allow the Caps to move Helbling with Zubrus to Buffalo. If you don't hear of Hedlund for a couple of years (unless you live in Hershey) I wouldn't be surprised.

Trade #3: Dainus Zubrus, Timo Helbling to BUF for Jiri Novotny, 1st round pick
Losing Zubrus, to many Caps faithful, means losing a critical part of our team: the first line center. The only problem is that Zubrus is, by nature, a right wing! This trade makes sense and is, dare I say brilliant, for a number of reasons:
1) The loss of Zubrus will force management to go out and acquire a legitimate 1st line center. Seeing this team lose faceoff after faceoff, while watching Ovechkin skate around with no one to pass to him will, hopefully, show them the light to trade for or sign a top line center man and pay him the money he needs. Simply bringing back Zuby or saying that Nicklas Backstrom won't cut it either George. This team is weak down the middle and Zubrus was merely keeping our front line from looking pathetic. If he's brought back, it should be as a right wing (we're also pretty weak at that position). Backstrom, right now, is an AHLer in my mind. Maybe he can step in and be the 2nd line center, or maybe not. As of right now, there are two glaring holes in the middle of the ice.
2) We might just be getting something for nothing. I heard the reports on XM radio that Zubrus may be coming back to DC in the offseason and, quite frankly, I think that's the case. Once I heard he was traded to Buffalo, I rejoiced because I knew that the Sabres don't have the cap room to sign more than 1 center. That means Zubrus will be on the market again this summer and I'm sure he'd be willing to come back here to play with his buddy Ovechkin.
3) I feel that Zubrus' value has been inflated by playing with Ovechkin. He's had record years when he's played on the same line with Ovechkin, as has Chris Clark. A few years ago, no way Zubrus would be worth this much, so we're getting more than he's worth.
Another element is that Zubrus was asking for $3 million per year for 5 years. Zubrus may be overvalued, but he's not worth that much. I think McPhee recognizes that and also realizes that Zuby will only be on the 2nd or 3rd line in Buffalo. I believe his production will taper off in Buffalo and so, when he becomes a free agent, he'll be worth LESS than he is now. Therefore, the Caps might just be able to resign Zubrus in July for around $2-2.5 million a year (a salary range he should be in) because other teams will be offering him less after seeing just how dependent he is on Ovechkin's offense.
The only downside to this deal is what we got in return. I did say Zubrus was overvalued, and I do think we got more in return than we gave up in the first round draft pick, but I don't think Nvotony was the right guy in return. George McPhee described him as a "third line center" and TSN's analysis agrees. A third line center is the LAST thing we need. Along with Beech, Sutherby, Laich, and Gordon, this team would win the "third line of the year awards." McPhee should have either thrown in another defenseman (perhaps Eminger or Clymer) or relented on the 1st round pick for a 2nd or 3rd (since this a weak draft and that late 1st round pick is essentially equal to a mid-second in another year's draft) and gotten a young defenseman or forward. Among those McPhee could have swiped for Zubrus (in my opinion):
- Dmitri Kalinin
- Ales Kotalik
- Derek Roy
- Jochen Hecht
So while I don't feel that it was a BAD trade, it wasn't the BEST trade that could have been made.

Overall Grade: C

Trade #4: Jamie Heward to LAK for 5th Round Pick
This is just getting the most bang for your buck here. Jamie Heward was going to be a UFA this summer and is clearly the least valuable player to this rebuild. It hurts me to say this, but the 5th round pick from LA was probably the best offer out there. It just pains me that Muir didn't get shipped out as well.

Overall Grade: C+

Capitals vs. Kings: Word of the Day...

Persistency

A combination of the words persistent and consistency, this what Washington must do tonight to win. They need to be persistent in attack the puck and get that consistency back on the powerplay.

They're already consitently bad on the power play, two guys with more than 10 power play goals?

But also, Alex Ovechkin needs to be persistent and consistent. He's riding a three game scoring drought.

Jakub Klepis says: "At least you're not riding the pine for that delay-of-game penalty!"

Ovechkin has fallen to 4th overall in points in the NHL with 70, that's 16 behind rival Sid "the Kid" Crosby.

Also Known As: "Poppa Floppa" and "Whiney Crosbaby"

But Ovechkin is not the only one who hasn't been consitent or persistent. Olaf Kolzig needs to step up his game and play with more intensity. He's only got 1 win in his last 5 starts and his last shutout was before the lockout.

That's roughly 230 years ago.

If Kolzig can play the way he did in his prime and keep the puck out of the net, the Caps will have a great chance to win. But he does have a 4-7-3-0 record against LA with a 3.33 GAA and .886 save percentage. But that could change tonight.

Because Elisha Cuthbert moved to NY with Sean Avery and no longer can distract him?

Los Angeles is the only team with a losing record when scoring first. Considering how bad Washington is when trailing first and how many goals they score in the first, this game could provide a comeback that could boost their spirits.

If they don't come back, they're gonna have a LOT of spirits.

Final note: Milan Jurcina has been hot for the Caps, averaging over 22 mins of ice time and recording a +1 rating.

Bruins 3 - Capitals 2 (SO): Brought to You by the Letter...

Now many reading this might think the "O" is for Ovechkin, who was held scoreless last night against Boston. Last night made the third consecutive game in which Ovie did not register a point. Indeed, NHL.com's recap of the game focused entirely on Ovechkin's inability to score. They spoke of how Zdeno Chara held the Russian Phenom in check and about how frustrated Ovechkin seemed after the game.

But the "O" I'm referring to is "O" for offense! To pin this loss on Ovechkin's lack of scoring is ridiculous, considering that before the three-game scoreless streak, Ovechkin had scored in 13 straight games. Let's be honest folks, you can't put that kind of pressure on a young kid-expecting him to score every game--and have him consistenly meet it. Some games, Ovechkin's gonna not scores, so it's up to the rest of the team to step up.

Certainly in this game, some of the lesser heroes did step up to provide a boost for the Caps. Brooks Laich and Eric Fehr scored the two regulation goals for the Caps. Combined, the two have eight goals on the year. Laich's goal was unassisted while Fehr got help from Richard Zednik (15 points) and Mike Green (9 points). While the less likely heroes did chip in, the other players who were supposed to be helping Ovechkin carry the offensive load were silent.

Chris Clark, Dainus Zubrus, Alexander Semin and Matt Pettinger, who round out the Caps top 5 in scoring, were all scoreless last night. I'll give Semin a break because he was the only one who scored in the shootout, but Alex Ovechkin is supposed to be such an offensive dynamo that he should free up space for other players. That means on nights when Ovie's not scoring, Clark and Zubrus need to step up. Pettinger as well, has not been strong of late.

Putting the blame on Ovechkin for the teams offensive sputterings is preposterous. The offense got help from the "unusual suspects" but they couldn't get the firepower from their stars. If Ovechkin couldn't cash in, then the other big guns needed to step up. We needed some offense last night and #8 wasn't going to carry us there.

Panthers 6 - Capitals 3: Brought to You by the Letter...

As in: how the hell do you lose to the Panthers...AGAIN?
Not only how do you lose to the Panthers, but how do you keep losing games that you HAD to win and were SUPPOSED to win.
6-14-0 in their last 20 games has basically knocked the Capitals out of the playoffs. 3 of those games were against the bottom feeding Panthers, 1 against the lowly Coyotes. Winnning those four games keeps them even during that last stretch and now 1 point behind Carolina for the #8 playoff spot.
Instead, the Capitals have played flat, struggled mightily on the power play and basically looked like a bad team. Not and inexperienced team--a BAD team. Some of the numbers from last nights Panthers game are a microcosm of what has happened to the Capitals in the last 20 games:
- 2 for 9 on the power play (including a boatload of wasted 5 on 3 time)
- 3 for 6 on the penalty kill
- Outshot 32-30
- Olie allows 6 goals on 32 shots (.813 save percentage)
- Capitals fell behind early (2-1 at the end of the first) and then fell further behind (5-1 at the end of the second).

So in a nutshell, bad defense, sloppy play, flat early, uninspired afterwards. So what's the reason?

Is it coaching? Well certainly when your team started out 15-10-7 and then loses 14 of 20 games following it, you've gotta hold some of the blame. The Capitals seem to be a team that comes out either unprepared or just flat most nights. Other teams take advantage of their early lull and put them behind the eight ball. That in turn disheartens the team who fall further downhill and by the time they pick themselves up and play well, its too late.
Thats the other thing: they still play well. If it were a matter of them getting outplayed when they hustled and worked hard, it would be one thing. But when the Caps show up to play, they are nearly unstoppable. If theres inconsitency, it has to be with the coach. I thought Hanlon was a good motivator; I guess I was wrong.

It is management? Well as I said earlier, they can play well so the talent's still there. But its just so few and far in between. I have never liked George McPhee and never supported the plan to rebuild through the draft. Why? George McPhee CANNOT draft. Let me give you an example, he had 3 first round picks in the 2001 NHL draft. He spent them on Boyd Gordon, Steve Eminger and Alexander Semin. Only one of those guys, Semin, has proven to be worth the first round pick spent on him. In that same year, McPhee passed on Marek Zidlicky and Marek Svatos as well as a bevy of young goaltenders who could be groomed as Kolzig's successor (Cam Ward, Peter Budaj and Cristobal Huet are in that list).
But this year specifically, the Caps got hot early. They had what looked like the opportunity to make the playoffs with, arguably, the least talent of anyone. What did McPhee do? Nothing. Did he really think that this team would survive into January and February when players started getting banged up? What if Ovechkin, Semin or Olie had gotten hurt? It could have knocked us to the bottom. But instead of reinforcing a young sparky team, he let injuries plague us and allowed our AHL guys to get NHL minutes. Not a bad idea in philosophy, but it hurt the Caps chances at the playoffs. The fact is, he should have been making deals like the Jurcina trade in December. He sat on his hands too long and allowed this to become the year that never was.

Is it the system? Well show me a team that dumps-and-chases on the power play. Has three players on one side of the ice when cycling the puck in the offensive zone. Has a goaltender who gives up huge rebounds with a defense in front of him who can't clear traffic. Basically doesn't realize that most of their goals come from rushes and won't spread the ice. A team that can't make a breakout pass, ices the puck than most other teams, cannot establish a semblance of a solid powerplay and is constanly out of position on defense.
Yes, the system is at fault. Whoever is in charge of drawing up the gameplan needs to be fired. This system was designed for the old NHL, as was this team. Now, you need speedy players, mobile defensemen (McPhee's still picking those 6'5 guys who can't keep up with the fast forwards) and solid young goaltending. The breakout pass, weaving into the zone and an agressive forcheck are all things that make a team successful now. No one has figured this out. The system needs to be revamped. The more you teach these young kids to do the bad things the Caps do now (like dump into the zone when your team is up a man), the harder it is for them to "unlearn" it.

So basically all we have to do is suffer through another 30 games before more promises of "playoffs next year" come from Ted and George. The problem is, and I've said it before, it should have been this year.

Capitals (21-23-7) @ Panthers (19-23-10): Keys to the Game

#1. Score First, Score Early
Caps fans will basically be able to tell within the first 20 minutes of the game if the Capitals have a fighting shot. They've been outscored 31-16 in the first period during their 6-13-0 run since December 16. In those six wins they've amassed, they've scored first 4 times, but only trailed at the end of the first once. Getting an early jump on the Panthers could be key, since they have a .226 win percentage when trailing first (26th in the league) and have fallen behind first in 31 of their 52 games.
But if the Caps cannot strike early and first, they will be in for a bad night. They are, themselves, 5-19-4 when trailing first (.179 win percentage is 27th in the league) and they are only 2-16-3 when trailing after the first period (.095 win percentage is 3rd worst in the NHL).
The saving grace: Florida has only led after the first period in 14 games.

#2. Kolzig Is the Man
The Panthers and Caps have split the season series, 2-2. In the two games that the Capitals won, Olie Kolzig was the first star and has made a combined 78 saves on 81 shots in those wins. In the games they lost, 76 saves on 82 shots. So Kolzig has been solid in all the games against Florida. In fact, in his career, Kolzig has a 22-16-3-2 record against Florida, a 2.33 GAA and .924 save percentage.
The Caps have averaged about 41 shots against when playing Florida. They will have to keep that total down, but since they haven't been successful at all this year, Kolzig will have to be superb. The good news is that this year against Florida he has a .933 save percentage.

#3. A High Scoring Affair
In the games between the Caps and Cats, the winning team has averaged 5 goals while the losing team has averaged just under 2. The difference in how the teams play is critical in determining who wins those games. Typically, the teams that come out of the gate firing will win these games. Usually one team gets off to a good start while the other comes out flat. If the Caps can avoid coming out flat like they did against Ottawa, they can have a shot at success.

Players to Watch for...
Florida: Ed Belfour
Eddie "the Eagle" is responsible for both of Florida's wins over the Caps. He has 2 wins against the Caps this year, as well as a no-decision (the loss was credited to Alex Auld). In his career against Washington, he has a 20-8-2-0 record with a 2.46 GAA and a .898 save percentage. This year, he's allowed 5 goals on a mere 49 shots, but he still has the ability to backstop the Cats to a win.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin
The Capitals are 2-7-0 in the 9 games that Ovechkin doesn't register a point. That's right, he's scored points in all but 9 games (thats 42 out of 51 games). Ovie has 12 points in 12 career games against Florida, including 4 goals. He is currently on a 3 game goal-scoring streak and a 12 game point-streak. Considering he's scored 1 goal and 3 assists in 4 games against Florida this year, its a safe bet that he'll add another point tonight.

Doesn't It Seem Like Just Yesterday that...

We were talking about the playoffs? Oh wait, it was just yesterday. Well...not quite--but it was just a month ago. On December 16, the Capitals defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 4-1. Dainus Zubrus, Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin accounted for all the Capitals scoring. Olie Kolzig made 21 saves. It was Washington's 32nd game of the season

The Capitals' record was 15-10-7. They were five games above .500. Now as January is about to end, the Capitals have gone on a horrid streak of 6-13-0 to put themselves 2 games below the .500 mark and are 21-23-7. Back then, the Capitals hopes of the playoffs were flying high. Now, they are 7 points out of that #8 spot. To put it into perspective, if the Capitals had continued at the pace they were playing at before December 16 (1.15 points/game), they would have about 59 points, 10 more than they have now. Thus they'd have approximately 5 wins more (and thus 5 losses less) making their record 26-18-7. That would put us in second place in our division (a spot that we occupied on December 16) and in 6th place in the East.

So what's the problem? What happened to make the Capitals fall off?

Some say the Caps were just hot early. Well you don't just get hot for more than a third of the season and then play horribly for another third. By that logic, its conceivable that the Caps could get incredibly hot and make the playoffs.

Others say that the injuries hurt the Caps. Specifically, they point to the injuries of Erskine, Zednik, and Muir (don't forget, Heward, Morrisonn and Pothier missed multiple games during our stretch). But lets look at the injuries and the injured's impact on the team.

- Richard Zednik's been hurt since 12/2 when he suffered the groin injury. In 20 games, he has 5 goals and 13 points.
- John Erskine was injured in that December 16 game against the Flyers. He is third on the team in PIMs (despite only playing 18 games) and has 1 goal and 5 points (and - 5)
- Brian Muir was injured December 19 against Tampa. He has 3 goals and 5 points in 19 games and is a +8.

But looking at the people who came up and replaced them...
- Boyd Gordon has 2 goals and 14 points in 42 games. He is also 51% on faceoffs (highest on the team of anyone with more than 100 faceoffs taken)
- Lawrence Nycholat has 2 goals and 8 points in 17 games but is only a -3.
- Mike Green has 2 goals and 8 points in 42 games and is only a -1.

So it doesn't appear that the injuries put the Caps behind the eight ball too much. Granted, George McPhee could've gone out and gotten a proven defenseman to anchor the defense rather than throwing inexperienced players into the lineup (after all, we could've pushed to make the playoffs). But still, the loss of 3 guys who weren't helping too much (one of whom will be dealt soon) didn't knock us out of the playoffs.

The fact is, since then, Olie and Brent haven't been playing spectacularly. The defense has looked shaky. The power play's been failing. The fact is: the team ran out of gas because of a lack of depth. It turns out Olie, Ovie and Semin can't carry the team. Zubrus doesn't show up every day. Green and Nycholat are inexperienced, Eminger bounces around like a yo-yo. Heward is slow. Pothier is not a #1 defenseman (no matter how hard we wish) and beyond that second line, we have no firepower. The season is slipping away. Tomorrow I'll break down which players should go and who we should be looking for in return. But Ted and George's excuse of needing to go through growing pains is done. We could've made the playoffs this year. And we'd better make it next year.

Oh, and if the Caps had played at the rate they were in the beginning of the year, they'd have wound up with 95 points and a sure playoff spot.

Capitals (20-21-7) vs. Hurricanes (25-19-6): Keys to the Games...

#1. Don't Fall Behind
There are two factors working against Washington in this key. The first is that they are terrible at coming from behind. The second is that Carolina never falls off a lead. The Capitals have only won two of their 19 games when trailing after one period (.192 win percent) and only won two of 21 when trailing at the second intermission (.095 win percent). Also, when trailing first, the Caps are 5-17-4 (.192 win percent, 4th worst in league). Compare that to when the Caps score first, they are 15-4-3 (.682 win percentage). Scoring the first goal and getting a lead early usually gives the Caps a confidence boost, while falling behind early puts them behind the eight ball.
But for a team that has a hard time coming back from early deficits, Carolina is the worst team to be facing. The Hurricanes are best in the league both in winning percentage when leading after the 1st period (.941) and the 2nd (1.000). In fact, Carolina has never fallen in regulation in a game where they lead after the first period. They only have one overtime/shootout loss where they led after the first period. In addition, when Carolina scores first they have a winning percentage that is fourth best in the league (.789). When trailing first, they are a mediocre .323. The good news, for the Caps, is that Carolina has only led first in 19 of their 50 games, as opposed to the Capitals who have scored first 22 times of 48.
So the first period will be a critical one. If the Caps can score first and keep a lead into the second, they will have a good chance. If Carolina scores first and gets a lead entering the intermission, Washington's already in a deep pit. The saving grace for Washington is that Carolina has an even goals for to against ratio for the first period. The 'Canes have scored 38 goals in the first (21st in the league) and allowed 38 (9th in the league). By comparison, the Caps also have an even goals for:against ratio with 50 goals for (6th in league) versus 50 against (5th worst). So the scoring battle looks to be a coin flip. The Caps'll have to outwork Carolina to grab the early edge.
#2. 'Canes Spread Out Attack
Unfortunately for the Capitals, their defensive strategy cannot simply key into one player on Carolina to shut him down (as many teams would do to Ovechkin). Three different Hurricanes lead the teams in the three offensive categories. Ray Whitney leads the team in points (53), Rod Brind'Amour leads the team in assists (39) and Justin Williams leads the team in goals (23).
None of these stats look particularly frightening, but the fact that so many guys are so close to them in scoring is what makes that Carolina offense so terrifying. Carolina has...
- Three 20+ goal scorers (Williams 23, Staal 22, Cole 21)
- Three other 10+ goal scorers (Whitney 19, Walker 16, Brind'Amour 13)
- They have two players with 50+ points (Brind'Amour and Whitney)
- Three others with 40+ points (Williams, Cole, Staal)
- They have seven total players with 20+ points
This spread out offense has worked wonders for the Hurricanes. They are 12th in the league in goals/game (3.06) and average 30.6 shots per game. Their only "flaw" on offense is their power play where they are only 16.4% effective. Washington needs to play a solid offensive game to shut down this explosive offensive core.
#3. Pad the Lead
Unfortunately for the Caps, they have been on the wrong side of close games. In one-goal games, the Capitals only have a .294 win percentage (3rd worst in the league). Luckily, the Caps have only played in 17 one-goal games. But while they lose a lot of close games, they also don't do well in wide margin games. They've lost 14 of 24 games in which the goal differential was 3 goals. But they have won 10 of those games, as opposed to the mere 5 they've won in one goal games.
But the Caps tend to do better in two goal games. They have 5 wins in 7 games when the goal differential is 2. The fact is that the Caps tend to win more games when the lead is bigger. That doesn't offset the fact that they also lose a lot of blowouts. If the Caps can avoid those close games, or at least keep their leads bigger, they will have a much better chance of winning.
Players to Watch For...
Carolina: Cam Ward
For 'Canes goaltender Cam Ward, the last few games before the All-Star break were a jarring experience. After two straight games with save percentages over .940 (wins against the Islanders and Leafs) Ward feel off the sort of play that won him the Conn Smythe Trophy last June. Following a no-decision with the Panthers in which he allowed 3 goals on 31 shots, Ward gave up 8 goals in 55 total shots in his next two games (both OT/shootout losses to Atlanta and Tampa). Now, after the All-Star break, Ward looks to regain his stellar play against the Capitals. Against Washington, Ward's got a 2.96 GAA and .903 save percentage. His numbers against Washington have been slightly better this year (2.50 GAA, .909 save percent), but for the 'Canes to win, Ward must be stellar.
Washington: Olie Kolzig
Olie Kolzig has also had a stretch before the break marked by inconsistent play. In the five games before the break, Kolzig allowed 5 goals twice but also had two games with save percentages above .935. This has been the trend for Kolzig and his inconsistent defensive corps. Now, with Brian Pothier out, the Caps will need more young defensemen to step in.
As highlighted by my column yesterday, the Caps defense is still lacking. Kolzig has had great sucess against Carolina in his career 2.15 GAA, .925 save percentage and if the Caps want to win, Kolzig will have to be a stabilizing force.

A Mid-Season Look: Defense

Caps fans are long since removed from the glory days of intense Capitals hockey. Those days were marked with gritty veterans, stylish young players and, most importantly, exceptional defense. The Capitals have begun to assemble pieces to resemble the first two. They have gritty vets in Clark, Clymer, Brashear and Zubrus as well as young stars in Ovechkin and Semin. But what about defense?
The days of watching Calle Johannson, Mark Tinordi, Sergei Gonchar, Ken Klee, and even Brendan Witt anchoring our blueline are long gone. Now they are replaced by the likes of (and these are listed in order of whom they resemble) Brian Pothier, Shaone Morrisonn, Mike Green, Steve Eminger and Jamie Heward. The lineup is younger, ownerships master plan. But is younger better? Let's look at how the Caps defensive unit has fared this year.

- The Capitals allow 3.40 goals per game (26th in the NHL)
- They allow 34.6 shots against per game (last in the league)
- They have allowed 50 first period goals (5th most in the NHL)
- As a result, they have trailed first 26 times this year (they only have a .192 win percent when trailing first, 4th worst in the league)
- Also as a result, they have trailed at the end of the 1st period 19 times (and only win .105 percent of games in that state, also 4th worst in the NHL)
- To be fair, the 1st period is their best defensive period. They've allowed 56 goals in the 2nd period and 55 in the third (those are both 24th in the league)
- Only three of their defensemen have a positive plus/minus rating* (Bryan Muir +8, Mike Green +3, Lawrence Nycholat +2)
- Their highest paid defenseman, Brian Pothier, is worst on the team in plus/minus* (-9). To be fair, Pothier leads the teams defensemen in ice time (24:59 mins/game)
- However, Brian Pothier does lead the team's defensemen in blocked shots with 94. There are two other d-men with more than 50: Shaone Morrisonn and Steve Eminger. Jamie Heward is also above the league median (42) with 49 blocked shots.
- Brian Pothier is also 10th in the NHL in takeaways (30). Shaone Morrisonn is right behind him at 18th with 26 takeaways.
- The league median in takeaways is 9. Along with Morrisonn and Pothier, Mike Green (19) and Steve Eminger (11) are above that mark.
- Only 2 of their defensemen have more than 50 PIMS. One of them is John Erskine who has only played 18 games, the other is Shaone Morrisonn.
- The league median for PIMs for d-men is 24. Every defenseman who has played 40+ games is above that mark.

* Note: The JET does not consider plus/minus to be an accurate indicator of a player's defensive prowess. In fact, he considers it to be the most useless statistic in sports. He only uses it because the NHL does not do a good job of monitoring more important aspects of defense (how many shots a defenseman blocks, how many shots the goaltender must face when a certain defenseman is on the ice, ect.)

Brian Pothier has been a good addition to this core of young defensemen. Shaone Morrisonn is proving himself to be one of the next great rising defensemen. John Erskine, before he got hurt, was an intimidating and surprising force in the defensive zone. Jamie Heward has been a calming force. Steve Eminger has been streaking hot of late. Mike Green is playing years ahead of where he should be. Lawrence Nycholat has stepped up and proven that he deserves the chance to be an every game defenseman. Jeff Schultz has been good when called upon.
If you're a Capitals fan, you're looking at this and saying "great! We've got a core of young defensemen who are playing incredibly well! We'll be golden at the blueline for years to come."
Not quite.

The first problem for this defensive core is that they still do not have a clear-cut #1 bona-fide defenseman on this roster. Brian Pothier is a great puck-moving d-man, but he is not cut out to be "the guy" at the Caps blueline. Shaone Morrisonn has that potential, but he's probably a few years away. The top line is stocked full of future top-defensive players. That's great...for the future. If the Caps want to win now, they need a stabilizing force at the blueline. A solid, veteran top 4 defenseman who can eat minutes, calm the younger players and provide depth throughout the lineup so Olie Kolzig can get an easy night now and again.

Now, there have been some things that have hurt the Capitals and are things that a veteran defenseman could help the team improve on. These things are skills that a defensive core has to have if they want to be successful. As of right now, I don't think our defensemen can...

#1 Make an Outlet Pass
The biggest and best thing that a team can do to limit shots against and keep the puck out of the net is to get the puck out of their defensive zone. This entails either simply icing the puck (now less common since new rules keep the same, tired defensemen on the ice) or getting the puck and passing it to a forward who can, presumably, take the puck out (lets face it, guys like Ovechkin, Semin and Zubrus can do that). The problem the Capitals defensemen is that they cannot get the puck and do anything with it. They bang it up the boards right to the point men waiting.
What they cannot seem to do is settle the puck in the corner and pass it to the forwards. Instead, they panick and just shoot the puck up the boards. It wouldn't be too bad if they didn't shoot it hard and the puck hit the defenseman before getting out (preventing icing). Unfortunately, the puck can never get out of the zone.
#2 Positioning
I don't know if the NHL approves of or even allows man-to-man defense, but that's what the Capitals do. Rather than follow the conventional defensive strategy (near-side d-man pressures the puck, far-side d-man patrolls the crease, center moves supporting the puck, wings stay with the points) the Capitals seem to play the sort of youth soccer style defense: swarm to the puck.
Too many times I've seen the forwards below the goal line, the defensemen past the face-off dots, the center at the point or the goaltender at the blue line (okay I made up that last part). The Caps look frantic in their defensive zone. They need to play the style of defense that they (presumably) were taught since they were squirts.
The style of defense the Caps play is flawed because it typically leaves one or two fowards in a mismatch. Sometimes one or two forwards will be collapsing around the goal with no one to tie them up. Other times a man will be free in the slot. Or a point man will have a clear shooting channel. The fact is, it allows the other team to create chances that other teams wouldn't give them.
It also doesn't help the breakout passes. It's hard for a forward to catch a breakout pass when he's in the slot and its hard for a defenseman to make a breakout pass from behind the net.
#3 They are Way to Agressive
This has two connotations. The first is the Capitals defensive play in the zone. As mentioned above, they tend to follow the puck, even when its in a non-threatening area (behind the net). The defensemen don't have to attack the puck when the forwards cannot get a shot. Instead of driving at a guy who has the puck directly behind the net and giving him an option, just sit back and prevent him from getting the puck from out of that area. I mean if the puck's back there, the other team can't really score.
The other meaning of the title is the fact that the players (both d-men and forwards) play the body too much. The point of hitting other players is to separate them from the puck. If the defensemen don't come away with the puck or at least knock the guy off the puck, a check is worthless. I have seen the Caps players time after time line up a guy and either miss the check (and end up hopelessly out of position) or hit the puck carrier and have that player (or another player on the team) keep the puck. The Caps need to work on playing the puck and getting it. Puck possession is half the battle. If you have the puck, the other team can't score.

Defense has been the most lacking area of the Capitals game since the season started. Tarik El-Bashir wrote in yesterday's Washington Post Article that the Caps wanted Alex Ovechkin to step up in his defensive role. A quote from the article stated:

Everyone agrees that the 21-year-old Russian's defensive decision making is better than it was a year ago, when he won the Calder Trophy as the NHL's top rookie. But there's a reason Ovechkin has been limited to less than 19 minutes 12 times his season, less than 18 minutes on seven occasions and has a plus-minus rating of minus-6. Hanlon said he wants to play his franchise winger an average of about 24 minutes.

"If it's a 2-1 hockey game in the third period, you're not ever above the puck, ever," Hanlon said. "You can't assume someone else is going to get the puck out. If you aren't exactly where you are supposed to be, it throws everything into chaos. That's why when the game is on the line, there are certain guys who are out there. We want Ovie to be one of those guys, every single night."

So Hanlon's saying that if Ovechkin plays defense, that'll help the Caps win a Stanley Cup? Hmm...sorry Glen. If this team wants to win a Stanley Cup, they need to work on the things I mentioned above. Forget your star player being out of position. What about the other 17 guys on the team who are also all out of position. The Caps need a stabilizing force in the defensive zone. They need to stop panicking. They need to hold their positions. And they need to do it soon.

Capitals Offense: The Numbers Only Tell Half the Story

Welcome to part 1 of my series on evaluating the Capitals mid-way through the season in the main areas: offense, defense, special teams, and goaltending. In this new series, I'll attempt to break down the Capitals in each of these categories based on the statistics, and my observations of nearly 10 Capitals games I saw during my winter break.

#1. Offense
- 3.10 goals/game (9th in league)
- 83 5 on 5 goals (15th in league)
- 26.8 shots per game (22nd in league)
- 50 1st period goals, 49 2nd period goals, 47 3rd period goals
- .682 win percentage when scoring first (17th in league)
- .192 win percent when trailing first (27th in league)
- Score first in 45.83% of games
- Two players with 25+ goals (Ovechkin, Semin)
- Three other players with 10+ goals (Clark, Zubrus, Pettinger)
- Team goal median: 2 goals (league goal median: 3 goals)
- Three players with 40+ points (Ovechkin, Semin, Zubrus)
- Two others with 20+ points (Clark, Pettinger)

The numbers don't lie, the Caps have been darn good on offense this year. That's to be expected with a player like Alex Ovechkin on your roster, but Alex Semin has been an incredible "addition." The only problem is that beyond those two, along with the other three top scorers mentioned, the team is not very deep. By observation, the team tends to score most of its goals on the fly (breakaways, 2 on 1s). The biggest problem the Caps have offensively is that their defensemen cannot make a decent breakout pass, which leads to the Caps getting bogged down in the neutral zone. Ultimately, in the offensive zone, the Capitals strategy mainly consists of dump-and-chase and cycling the puck. These problems are both affected by what I believe is the Capital's achilles heel: passing.

If you've watched a number of Capitals games, one thing about their offense is evident: they can't pass. I've seen too many defensemen fail to hang onto the puck at the point on the power play or mishandle the puck at the blue line. There have been many times the Caps have had odd-man rushes, but were spoiled by a poor pass or inability to catch passes. It's especially problematic with the defensemen, but the forwards also have been known to misplay the puck. In addition, the Capitals tend to have passes broken up because they either take to long holding the puck or don't make a crisp enough pass. All this means that the Caps frequently have to dump the puck into the zone, rather than pass it in (as almost all other teams can do).

In addition, the team must cycle the puck because they cannot space themselves accordingly. They can't make a pass to the point and then set up a rotating offense where they can get people into shooting channels. Generally, when the Caps have the puck in the offensive zone, the puck will go into the corner. Two Caps players will converge on the puck along with the defenseman. One player will wait alongside the scrum, typically below the goal line, waiting for the puck to squirt loose to them. The near defenseman pinches down and the far defenseman moves toward the center.
Now, there are two major problems with this setup. #1 is that there is nobody on the far side of the ice, which allows the other team to swing the puck to the boards on the other side where their far-side defenseman can pick up the puck and bring it out. Or they'll simply fling the puck around the boards and past our far-side defender, who is too far out of position to keep the puck in. It's happened many times before. But the second problem is even more troubling...no one is in the slot!!! So if and when the Caps do come out of that scrum in the corner with the puck, they have virtually no options. If it, say, squirts to the guy waiting below the goal line, all he can do is turn away from the scrum to end up behind the net with nobody to pass to besides the far side defenseman. But typically, the other team's defeseman, who has been camping out in front of the net, will pinch down, pin the player with the puck behind the net and take it.
A simple remedy to this solution is to not have two people converge on the puck. It is a waste of ice to have two of our players on top of each other (particularly when there is one other guy three feet away). Instead, the winger on the near side (the side which the puck is on) should pin the puck on the boards. The center should wait for the puck to squirt out, the defensemen should be where they were and the far-side wing should move to the slot, wating for a centering pass from either the center or near-side wing. Another option is to have the far-side defenseman pinch in and move to the high slot (again, waiting for the pass) and have the three forwards converge on the puck and get it to one of the defensemen. Either way, the Caps cannot continue to have their three forwards occupying a five-foot area while their defensemen hang out in la-la land.

While the Caps offense has been good, it has not been great. If the Caps could be more efficient with the puck in their offensive zone, they could generate more scoring opportunities and draw more penalties.

Stay Tuned: Tomorrow...DEFENSE!

Why ESPN.com Angers Me!

This is all per Scott Burnside's NHL "mid-season predicitions" on ESPN.com

Capitals coach Glen Hanlon once again is showing he might be one of the most underrated coaches in the game, having guided his team to a 20-21-7 record at the break. The Caps are just three points out of the eighth spot, but rank 13th overall as injuries and a lack of talent are starting to eat away at the hardworking squad.

First-half surprises: The emergence of former Senators defender Brian Pothier as a top-notch leader (he is averaging 24:59 in ice time) and the play of enigmatic Alexander Semin (27 goals, 47 points), who is taking some pressure off Alexander Ovechkin.

Second-half questions: Will ownership free up cash to bring in some offensive help before the trade deadline? Will anyone in the perpetually half-empty Verizon Center notice?

Where they'll finish: It won't be for lack of effort, but the talent-thin
Caps won't have quite enough and will end up fourth in the division and 12th in
the jam-packed East.

Now, let me go through all the points step by step:

Capitals coach Glen Hanlon once again is showing he might be one of the most underrated coaches in the game, having guided his team to a 20-21-7 record at the break.

First off, I don't know how you can be underrated as a coach when your team has a losing record at the midway mark of the season while in the top 10 in scoring with a former Vezina trophy winner in Olaf Kolzig (I know, its been a while, but he still has a .910 save percentage and 3.12 GAA). Don't get me wrong, Hanlon's a great motivator who has gotten this team to play lightyears ahead of where they should be, but the team still looks frantic in the defensive zone and cannot sustain pressure in the offensive end. As much as other Capitals faithful would like me to applaud Burnsie for this, I don't think he's quite right.

The Caps are just three points out of the eighth spot, but rank 13th overall as injuries and a lack of talent are starting to eat away at the hardworking squad.

I'll agree about the injuries, but the Caps have talent. Maybe not great talent like other teams might but they still have enough to keep from getting embarassed. Most of the players who came here as low level players (Clark, Pettinger, Zubrus, Morrisonn, Green) have proven to be more underrated than others thought and teams that still overspend are not necessarily getting the bang for their buck.

Will ownership free up cash to bring in some offensive help before the trade deadline? Will anyone in the perpetually half-empty Verizon Center notice?

I'll start with the second part first: no. Not as long as the Washington Post glosses over a Caps win with news that some Western Conference NBA coach went on a tirade or Barry Bonds might get caught for steriod use. While Ted Leonsis is partially to blame for not using his talented young players as good marketing tools, no one can blame him for the fact that his team is barely on national television, gets shafted by Comcast whenever the Wizards are playing and are passed over by the Post in favor of coverage of what Joe Gibbs ate for brunch.
The first question is an interesting one posed by Burnside: will management pony up the dough to give the Caps the offensive help they so desperately crave? My answer: why would they?
What Burnside doesn't realize is...
- The Washington Capitals are averaging 3.10 goals per game (that's ninth in the league), ahead of his precious Thrashers (2.98 goals/game), Carolina (3.06), Detroit (3.02), Montreal (2.90), and Dallas (2.58)
- The Capitals have two 25+ goal scorers (Ovechkin and Semin) and three others with 10+ goals (Clark, Zubrus, Pettinger)
- Washington is 12th in the NHL in power play goals scored (45) and are ahead of the New York Rangers (44), Buffalo Sabres (42), and Calgary Flames (37)
If the Capitals have a flaw to fix, it's defensively. Granted that's a place where they've been plagued with injuries (Muir, Erskine, Morrisonn, Pothier, Green were all out for multiple games), but they have long been last in the league in shots against per game (in my mind, the greatest indicator of defensive prowess) and look frantic in their own zone. They have had rookies playing extended minutes for a long time, and while this is good for their experience, it hurts the Capitals. If I were in charge, I'd trade some of my younger forwards (particularly a left wing since we're loaded there) for a youngish, physical, top-4 defenseman. The Caps need help on defense Scott.

It won't be for lack of effort, but the talent-thin Caps won't have quite enough and will end up fourth in the division and 12th in the jam-packed East.

We'll beat out Philly, I think. Florida too. The Islanders, Toronto, Boston and Pittsburgh are all teams that could fade out or move up in the next few months. I'd say 12th is a good place, since we could finish anywhere from 13th to 9th.

Scott Burnside, no disrespect, but watch a Caps game and maybe get your story straight.