A Look Back to My Season Outlook

Goaltending: the most important position in the game is the most stable position for the Capitals. Olie Kolzig is a proven goaltender. At 36 he can still carry this team and play a good 50+ games. He came into camp in much better shape this year and the increased quickness is noticable. He still needs to try and limit the number of rebounds he gives up, especially with such a green core of defensemen. Behind him, Brent Johnson can certainly steal some games and showed last year he can play. In his 20 or so starts, he could conceivably win 10 games.

Kolzig did end up playing 54 games and did give up a lot of rebound goals. Johnny started 30 games. He won 6. Both goaltenders had a GAA of 3.00 or above and Olie had a .910 save percentage.

Defense: Youth is the theme for this year. Morrisonn, Eminger, Pothier, Green. What do they all have in common? They're under the age of 30. Only Jamie Heward and Brian Muir have seniority in this group. The problem is that before the lockout, Heward and Muir weren't in the NHL. This team gave up an average of 35 shots last year (28th in the league). Granted, Green and Pothier are an improvement over Biron and Majesky, but this group still has trouble breaking out, getting bodies out from in front of Olie and clearing rebounds. That shot average might go down to 33 a game; but still, over 30 is a LOT.

That Jeff Schultz (38 games, 3 points) was the team's leading +/- rater (+5) for defenseman tells you something about the team's defense this season. The team's big time off-season signing, Brian Pothier was...disappointing. -11, 28 points is disappointing, but he did lead the team in blocked shots (140).
But the team's best defenseman, by far was Shaone Morrisonn. Absent from the stat sheet most nights, he had a +3 rating (3rd on the team), blocked 120 shots, had 38 takeaways (most by a Caps defenseman) and played in 78 games.
Muir was injured most of the year, Heward was traded away at the deadline. Erskine was also injured most of the time. Mike Green did not have incredibly impressive numbers. Steve Eminger continued to make mental mistakes.
Oh, and as a whole, the team allowed 33.3 shots against per game (not bad huh?) which was second worst in the league. The league median for shots against was around 29.

Offense: It starts and ends with Ovechkin. The 52 goal, 106 point man has to have a good season in order for the Caps to succeed. He does have help with Semin and Zednik back in DC and with Pettinger, Zubrus, Clark and Sutherby along with him. The problem: only Zubrus and Zednik have eclipsed 40 points in a season in their careers. At the end of the day, Ovechkin will (barring injury) be good for 100 points, but if that Caps offense is going to run, someone else needs to get close to the 55-60 point area. That is definitely possible for either Zubrus or Clark, who are (currently) playing along with the Russian Dynamo, and for Alexander Semin, who has come out of the gates strong.

Ok, any numbskull could tell that Ovechkin was going to be a driving force for the offense. A 40+ goal season and 90+ point season is still nothing to sniff at. Semin was undoubtedly the Robin Ovechkin desperately needed to take pressure off, but beyond that...the river is dry.
Yes, Zubrus scored a bunch for us while he was here, but a lot of that was (as is becoming apparent) dependent on Ovie's playmaking ability.
Semin managed to be the 55-60 point man I mentioned in October (38 goals, 73 points), but after that you find Chris Clark with 54 points and a plethera of players who didn't crack 40 points or 10 goals (Pettinger's the only other 10+ goal scorer).
The Caps were, once upon a time, a team that could not be stopped offensively (remember those beautiful December days?) but they finished the year as only mediocre (2.85 goals per game, 17th in the league).

The Power Play: Oh. My. God. The problems on the powerplay are too endless to list...but I will anyway. The Caps need to move the puck quickly and with purpose. The point men need to pull the trigger when they have the open shot and have the forwards redirect the puck or bang in the rebounds. Beyond that, they need to figure out how to get the puck in the zone without dumping it (which they inevitably lose and allow the other team to fling it up the boards) and holding the puck in the zone at the points. They need to give up less shorties and with two strong PP units, they should do better than last year.

Ok, let's just go down the list here shall we?
- Move the puck quickly and with purpose? Umm...no one can pass the puck (except Ovechkin), no one can catch a pass (except Ovechkin and Semin) and no one can hold the puck in the zone. Kinda makes it hard to move the puck effectively.
- Point men need to pull the trigger and forwards need to bang in rebounds? Yeah, if there was ever anybody in FRONT of the net. Shots from the outside are fine...when you have people ready to grab those inside shots. The Caps could not get anyone in front of the net to cause havoc.
- Figure out how to get the puck in the zone without dumping it and hold it there? Not even close. First off, they still have not figured out how to pentrated the offensive zone, have one guy carry it in, and wait for his teammates to set up shop. You have an extra player guys...USE HIM. You CAN get the puck into the zone without dumping it! Trust me I've seen it done. On the other side of the coin, Pothier was supposed to be our PP QB...that didn't work. The team still simply flails their stick at the puck, hoping to bat it into the zone, rather than using their body to effectively keep it in.
Oh and they were 23rd in PP percent (16.4).

The Penalty Kill: As bad as the power play is, the PK is worse. The Caps tend to swarm to the puck and get caught behind the net, usually leaving one or two guys camped out around Olie. They need to focus on being aggressive, but holding the box. They can not have their forwards revolving down low because the defensemen are getting caught trying to retrieve the puck at the point. Beyond that, they must clear the screens out from in front of Olie and just clear it as quickly as possible. With a PK ranked near the bottom of the league last year, they can only go up...hopefully.

I did hope. I did. A lot of good it did me? The Caps' PK just broke 80% effectiveness...barely.
They chased the puck A LOT. They got caught behind the net A LOT. They can't figure out how to effectively clear the puck out of the zone (here's a hint guys, hard, and off the glass high!)
They were misserable in clearing the mess out from in front of Olie and let a lot of passes throught the crease. Special teams were slightly better than last year...but they are still nothing that you can be smiling about.

Dark Horses: Alexander Semin might be the most unexpected player to have a huge sophomore year. On a line with Zednik his speed and new-found matured skills could produce 30 goals and 60 points. The other thing that makes him an X-factor is the fact that most teams will be geared towards AO and allow him and Zed to find the twine a little more. He spent two years playing in Russia and that only gave him more time for his skills and body to mature.The other Dark Horse is a fourth line veteran: Donald Brashear. For an enforcer being paid to protect the most valuable player on the Caps, "Brash" could be a big producer. He'll usually be playing with some younger players who are hungry to prove themselves. Plus, in a new city, with a new, big contract, Brashear will want to play well to get a big extension. Plus, he's shown some offensive poise in the first two games.Last but not least, Shaone Morrisonn is the most underrated young defenseman in the league. While he doesn't have a lot of flash or big-hit ability, he can make the plays in his own zone when he has to. He knows what to do with the puck and he has the veteran savvy to make those big plays on his own. He might not put up huge defensive numbers this year, but he will make leaps and bounds toward being the Caps' number one defenseman.

Semin: I'm good. 38 goals, 73 points. Second highest scorer on the team. Even without Zednik most of the year, he was deadly. Teams underestimated him. They won't next year. Kudos to Sasha.
Brashear: The Don did nothing that will make the stats sheets sing, but I tip my hat to him. Along with Clark and Ovechkin, he was hustling. Every game, he was hustling. He scrummed in the corner, got pucks out and made things happen. All of us in the stands cheered whenver Don-ald! got a goal or made some poor scruffy forward a knuckle sammich. For his efforts, he got a 1 year extension, which was absolutely deserved.
And it was also refreshing to see other team's players stealing glances at Don as they were about to line up Ovie. You know what that man's thinking...
Morrisonn: ShaMo! What more do I have to say? Nothing I haven't already said, I imagine. Unquestionably our best d-man and certainly someone I'm confident in who can be our #1 guy one day.
I would like to add to the list, however, a mid-season pickup. Milan Jurcina was a guy that the Bruins discarded for rubble. McPhee traded a meaningless 4th round pick for that "rubble" who was one of our top 3 defensemen this year. Bet the B's fans are scowling at that fleecin!

Overrated: Unfortunately, the two most overrated players are defensemen. Steve Eminger was the 12th pick in 2002. Four years later, he still has not adapted to the speed of the NHL. He can hit, and he has some speed, but he still does not have poise. He hasn't learned to knock the guys in the crease down and has given up plenty of rebound and deflection goals on his watch. His decision-making ability with the puck needs to improve if he wants to be a top notch defenseman, which he has the potential to be.Second, the highest-paid defenseman, Brian Pothier. George McPhee brought in Pothier as a stablizing top defenseman. Heck, he paid him $2.5 million per year to do so. The only problem is that Pothier is not the #1 defenseman the Caps have slotted him to be. In Ottawa, Pothier was usually paired with a veteran as a second pair and had the opportunity to learn from Redden and Chara. He is only 29 and is not a top defenseman in the NHL. Hopefully, that four-year contract will give him time to mature into the top two defenseman he could be, but you can't expect him to give Chara or Redden-like numbers.Finally, Danius Zubrus has STILL not become the star forward the Flyers envisioned when they drafted him in the first round. Now approaching his 30s, Caps fans are still hoping that Zuby will have the breakout year. It may never come. Zubrus is a great power forward, but on a line with a 100 point forward he only scored 42 points. I'm sorry, but Dainus Zubrus will never be a consistent 80 point forward.

Nail on the head here. Eminger has still not emerged into what a 1st round pick defenseman should be...a top line d-man. He finished with the worst +/- rating of any Capital defenseman (-14), and tallied only 1 goal and 17 points.
Pothier is a special case. It's hard to compare his numbers from last year (77 games, 5 goals, 35 points, +29) to this year's (72 games, 3 goals, 28 points, -11) because of the quality of talent he was playing with then (Redden, Chara) as opposed to now (Eminger, Green). Still, he is a $2.5 million defenseman who was brought in to be our Power Play's quarterback, but only scored 2 power play goals and had difficulty holding the zone.

My Outlook: The Caps will be better this year...but not by much. Most people are picking the Caps to finish in 14th in the East, ahead of only the Islanders. I see the Caps finishing 12th, ahead of the Isles, Panthers, and Penguins. Final totals for this year are 80 points.Ovechkin leads all forwards with 54 goals and 110 points. Shaone Morrisonn is the top plus/minus getter with +11. Olie wins 29 games and has a GAA of 3.10. In the end, the Caps don't make the playoffs.

Ok, the Caps finished the same as last year (70 points, 4th worst in the NHL) so I wasn't too far off from that. The "many people" were right about where the Caps would finish, but not who they would finish ahead of. The experts didn't see the Flyers having an abysmal year and trading Forsberg (I didn't either to be truthful) or that the Isles would skyrocked ahead under Ted Nolan. The Caps finished behind the teams I said they would finish ahead of, though to be fair, if they had managed to win some of the "gimme" games against Florida, they might have finished 13th in the East. I was 10 points off from the teams point total, Ovechkin's scoring drought cost him any shot at that top forward spot and he was unable to break the 50 goal plateua. Morrisonn was a +3, tops for those defensemen who played for most of the year (Schultz had a higher +/-, but only played 38 games). Kolzig won fewer games than I predicted, but surprised me and had a lower GAA.

So in the end, I was right about the a lot, but I overestimated the Caps depth, which became apparent as the injury bug struck. If Ovie hadn't had a huge scoring slump and McPhee had upgraded some depth in December, who knows? We might not have to go Golfing right now...

Bruins 3 - Capitals 2 (SO): Brought to You by the Letter...

Now many reading this might think the "O" is for Ovechkin, who was held scoreless last night against Boston. Last night made the third consecutive game in which Ovie did not register a point. Indeed, NHL.com's recap of the game focused entirely on Ovechkin's inability to score. They spoke of how Zdeno Chara held the Russian Phenom in check and about how frustrated Ovechkin seemed after the game.

But the "O" I'm referring to is "O" for offense! To pin this loss on Ovechkin's lack of scoring is ridiculous, considering that before the three-game scoreless streak, Ovechkin had scored in 13 straight games. Let's be honest folks, you can't put that kind of pressure on a young kid-expecting him to score every game--and have him consistenly meet it. Some games, Ovechkin's gonna not scores, so it's up to the rest of the team to step up.

Certainly in this game, some of the lesser heroes did step up to provide a boost for the Caps. Brooks Laich and Eric Fehr scored the two regulation goals for the Caps. Combined, the two have eight goals on the year. Laich's goal was unassisted while Fehr got help from Richard Zednik (15 points) and Mike Green (9 points). While the less likely heroes did chip in, the other players who were supposed to be helping Ovechkin carry the offensive load were silent.

Chris Clark, Dainus Zubrus, Alexander Semin and Matt Pettinger, who round out the Caps top 5 in scoring, were all scoreless last night. I'll give Semin a break because he was the only one who scored in the shootout, but Alex Ovechkin is supposed to be such an offensive dynamo that he should free up space for other players. That means on nights when Ovie's not scoring, Clark and Zubrus need to step up. Pettinger as well, has not been strong of late.

Putting the blame on Ovechkin for the teams offensive sputterings is preposterous. The offense got help from the "unusual suspects" but they couldn't get the firepower from their stars. If Ovechkin couldn't cash in, then the other big guns needed to step up. We needed some offense last night and #8 wasn't going to carry us there.

Capitals Offense: The Numbers Only Tell Half the Story

Welcome to part 1 of my series on evaluating the Capitals mid-way through the season in the main areas: offense, defense, special teams, and goaltending. In this new series, I'll attempt to break down the Capitals in each of these categories based on the statistics, and my observations of nearly 10 Capitals games I saw during my winter break.

#1. Offense
- 3.10 goals/game (9th in league)
- 83 5 on 5 goals (15th in league)
- 26.8 shots per game (22nd in league)
- 50 1st period goals, 49 2nd period goals, 47 3rd period goals
- .682 win percentage when scoring first (17th in league)
- .192 win percent when trailing first (27th in league)
- Score first in 45.83% of games
- Two players with 25+ goals (Ovechkin, Semin)
- Three other players with 10+ goals (Clark, Zubrus, Pettinger)
- Team goal median: 2 goals (league goal median: 3 goals)
- Three players with 40+ points (Ovechkin, Semin, Zubrus)
- Two others with 20+ points (Clark, Pettinger)

The numbers don't lie, the Caps have been darn good on offense this year. That's to be expected with a player like Alex Ovechkin on your roster, but Alex Semin has been an incredible "addition." The only problem is that beyond those two, along with the other three top scorers mentioned, the team is not very deep. By observation, the team tends to score most of its goals on the fly (breakaways, 2 on 1s). The biggest problem the Caps have offensively is that their defensemen cannot make a decent breakout pass, which leads to the Caps getting bogged down in the neutral zone. Ultimately, in the offensive zone, the Capitals strategy mainly consists of dump-and-chase and cycling the puck. These problems are both affected by what I believe is the Capital's achilles heel: passing.

If you've watched a number of Capitals games, one thing about their offense is evident: they can't pass. I've seen too many defensemen fail to hang onto the puck at the point on the power play or mishandle the puck at the blue line. There have been many times the Caps have had odd-man rushes, but were spoiled by a poor pass or inability to catch passes. It's especially problematic with the defensemen, but the forwards also have been known to misplay the puck. In addition, the Capitals tend to have passes broken up because they either take to long holding the puck or don't make a crisp enough pass. All this means that the Caps frequently have to dump the puck into the zone, rather than pass it in (as almost all other teams can do).

In addition, the team must cycle the puck because they cannot space themselves accordingly. They can't make a pass to the point and then set up a rotating offense where they can get people into shooting channels. Generally, when the Caps have the puck in the offensive zone, the puck will go into the corner. Two Caps players will converge on the puck along with the defenseman. One player will wait alongside the scrum, typically below the goal line, waiting for the puck to squirt loose to them. The near defenseman pinches down and the far defenseman moves toward the center.
Now, there are two major problems with this setup. #1 is that there is nobody on the far side of the ice, which allows the other team to swing the puck to the boards on the other side where their far-side defenseman can pick up the puck and bring it out. Or they'll simply fling the puck around the boards and past our far-side defender, who is too far out of position to keep the puck in. It's happened many times before. But the second problem is even more troubling...no one is in the slot!!! So if and when the Caps do come out of that scrum in the corner with the puck, they have virtually no options. If it, say, squirts to the guy waiting below the goal line, all he can do is turn away from the scrum to end up behind the net with nobody to pass to besides the far side defenseman. But typically, the other team's defeseman, who has been camping out in front of the net, will pinch down, pin the player with the puck behind the net and take it.
A simple remedy to this solution is to not have two people converge on the puck. It is a waste of ice to have two of our players on top of each other (particularly when there is one other guy three feet away). Instead, the winger on the near side (the side which the puck is on) should pin the puck on the boards. The center should wait for the puck to squirt out, the defensemen should be where they were and the far-side wing should move to the slot, wating for a centering pass from either the center or near-side wing. Another option is to have the far-side defenseman pinch in and move to the high slot (again, waiting for the pass) and have the three forwards converge on the puck and get it to one of the defensemen. Either way, the Caps cannot continue to have their three forwards occupying a five-foot area while their defensemen hang out in la-la land.

While the Caps offense has been good, it has not been great. If the Caps could be more efficient with the puck in their offensive zone, they could generate more scoring opportunities and draw more penalties.

Stay Tuned: Tomorrow...DEFENSE!

Why ESPN.com Angers Me!

This is all per Scott Burnside's NHL "mid-season predicitions" on ESPN.com

Capitals coach Glen Hanlon once again is showing he might be one of the most underrated coaches in the game, having guided his team to a 20-21-7 record at the break. The Caps are just three points out of the eighth spot, but rank 13th overall as injuries and a lack of talent are starting to eat away at the hardworking squad.

First-half surprises: The emergence of former Senators defender Brian Pothier as a top-notch leader (he is averaging 24:59 in ice time) and the play of enigmatic Alexander Semin (27 goals, 47 points), who is taking some pressure off Alexander Ovechkin.

Second-half questions: Will ownership free up cash to bring in some offensive help before the trade deadline? Will anyone in the perpetually half-empty Verizon Center notice?

Where they'll finish: It won't be for lack of effort, but the talent-thin
Caps won't have quite enough and will end up fourth in the division and 12th in
the jam-packed East.

Now, let me go through all the points step by step:

Capitals coach Glen Hanlon once again is showing he might be one of the most underrated coaches in the game, having guided his team to a 20-21-7 record at the break.

First off, I don't know how you can be underrated as a coach when your team has a losing record at the midway mark of the season while in the top 10 in scoring with a former Vezina trophy winner in Olaf Kolzig (I know, its been a while, but he still has a .910 save percentage and 3.12 GAA). Don't get me wrong, Hanlon's a great motivator who has gotten this team to play lightyears ahead of where they should be, but the team still looks frantic in the defensive zone and cannot sustain pressure in the offensive end. As much as other Capitals faithful would like me to applaud Burnsie for this, I don't think he's quite right.

The Caps are just three points out of the eighth spot, but rank 13th overall as injuries and a lack of talent are starting to eat away at the hardworking squad.

I'll agree about the injuries, but the Caps have talent. Maybe not great talent like other teams might but they still have enough to keep from getting embarassed. Most of the players who came here as low level players (Clark, Pettinger, Zubrus, Morrisonn, Green) have proven to be more underrated than others thought and teams that still overspend are not necessarily getting the bang for their buck.

Will ownership free up cash to bring in some offensive help before the trade deadline? Will anyone in the perpetually half-empty Verizon Center notice?

I'll start with the second part first: no. Not as long as the Washington Post glosses over a Caps win with news that some Western Conference NBA coach went on a tirade or Barry Bonds might get caught for steriod use. While Ted Leonsis is partially to blame for not using his talented young players as good marketing tools, no one can blame him for the fact that his team is barely on national television, gets shafted by Comcast whenever the Wizards are playing and are passed over by the Post in favor of coverage of what Joe Gibbs ate for brunch.
The first question is an interesting one posed by Burnside: will management pony up the dough to give the Caps the offensive help they so desperately crave? My answer: why would they?
What Burnside doesn't realize is...
- The Washington Capitals are averaging 3.10 goals per game (that's ninth in the league), ahead of his precious Thrashers (2.98 goals/game), Carolina (3.06), Detroit (3.02), Montreal (2.90), and Dallas (2.58)
- The Capitals have two 25+ goal scorers (Ovechkin and Semin) and three others with 10+ goals (Clark, Zubrus, Pettinger)
- Washington is 12th in the NHL in power play goals scored (45) and are ahead of the New York Rangers (44), Buffalo Sabres (42), and Calgary Flames (37)
If the Capitals have a flaw to fix, it's defensively. Granted that's a place where they've been plagued with injuries (Muir, Erskine, Morrisonn, Pothier, Green were all out for multiple games), but they have long been last in the league in shots against per game (in my mind, the greatest indicator of defensive prowess) and look frantic in their own zone. They have had rookies playing extended minutes for a long time, and while this is good for their experience, it hurts the Capitals. If I were in charge, I'd trade some of my younger forwards (particularly a left wing since we're loaded there) for a youngish, physical, top-4 defenseman. The Caps need help on defense Scott.

It won't be for lack of effort, but the talent-thin Caps won't have quite enough and will end up fourth in the division and 12th in the jam-packed East.

We'll beat out Philly, I think. Florida too. The Islanders, Toronto, Boston and Pittsburgh are all teams that could fade out or move up in the next few months. I'd say 12th is a good place, since we could finish anywhere from 13th to 9th.

Scott Burnside, no disrespect, but watch a Caps game and maybe get your story straight.