After a Long While Off, the JET is Back and Looking at the Trade Deadline Deals!

It's the most wonderful time of the year! No not Christmas! Trade Deadline Day! And the JET spent it watching the live TSN newscast of the many trades and signings that came about. While there were certainly big trades of high profile players being sent to contenders, all the JET cares about is who got dealt to and fro the Caps. So without further ado...

Trade #1: Richard Zednik to NYI for 2nd round Draft Pick
Now this year, the JET is not a big fan of trading for picks, especially because this draft is rumored to be one of the weakest in recent memory. Second round picks are usually fringe NHL talent and the Isle's pick figures to be around a mid-rounder (so somewhere in the late 40s-early 50s). Whoever the Caps use this pick on will, in all likelihood, not be a player who can step in immediately and probably won't be close to the NHL within 3 years (if ever).
That said, Zednik is a UFA who the Caps couldn't resign. He's been nagged with injury problems and has been inconsistent in scoring. I knew once the Caps traded for him in the offseason that he wouldn't be more than a secondary scoring threat who the Caps would try to use to get some more young assets later in the season. Most people thought Zednik would get traded for the 3rd round draft pick the Caps had previously sent to Montreal. But instead, George McPhee pulled off a 2nd rounder for Zednik. Big ups to McPhee who once again traded a player for a much higher draft pick than he was worth (see Witt for Beech and 1st rounder).

Overall Grade: B

Trade #2: Lawrence Nycholat to OTT for Andy Hedlund, 6th round pick
This is an even trade, in every sense. It's literally, one minor league defenseman for another. The only difference is the 6th round pick coming the Caps way which can be disregarded since even in very strong drafts (which I mentioned, this is not) there are not many NHL players or top AHL players that are drafted in the 6th round.
There is no TSN scouting report on Hedlund, so there is nothing to expect from him. All in all, this trade was probably made to allow the Caps to move Helbling with Zubrus to Buffalo. If you don't hear of Hedlund for a couple of years (unless you live in Hershey) I wouldn't be surprised.

Trade #3: Dainus Zubrus, Timo Helbling to BUF for Jiri Novotny, 1st round pick
Losing Zubrus, to many Caps faithful, means losing a critical part of our team: the first line center. The only problem is that Zubrus is, by nature, a right wing! This trade makes sense and is, dare I say brilliant, for a number of reasons:
1) The loss of Zubrus will force management to go out and acquire a legitimate 1st line center. Seeing this team lose faceoff after faceoff, while watching Ovechkin skate around with no one to pass to him will, hopefully, show them the light to trade for or sign a top line center man and pay him the money he needs. Simply bringing back Zuby or saying that Nicklas Backstrom won't cut it either George. This team is weak down the middle and Zubrus was merely keeping our front line from looking pathetic. If he's brought back, it should be as a right wing (we're also pretty weak at that position). Backstrom, right now, is an AHLer in my mind. Maybe he can step in and be the 2nd line center, or maybe not. As of right now, there are two glaring holes in the middle of the ice.
2) We might just be getting something for nothing. I heard the reports on XM radio that Zubrus may be coming back to DC in the offseason and, quite frankly, I think that's the case. Once I heard he was traded to Buffalo, I rejoiced because I knew that the Sabres don't have the cap room to sign more than 1 center. That means Zubrus will be on the market again this summer and I'm sure he'd be willing to come back here to play with his buddy Ovechkin.
3) I feel that Zubrus' value has been inflated by playing with Ovechkin. He's had record years when he's played on the same line with Ovechkin, as has Chris Clark. A few years ago, no way Zubrus would be worth this much, so we're getting more than he's worth.
Another element is that Zubrus was asking for $3 million per year for 5 years. Zubrus may be overvalued, but he's not worth that much. I think McPhee recognizes that and also realizes that Zuby will only be on the 2nd or 3rd line in Buffalo. I believe his production will taper off in Buffalo and so, when he becomes a free agent, he'll be worth LESS than he is now. Therefore, the Caps might just be able to resign Zubrus in July for around $2-2.5 million a year (a salary range he should be in) because other teams will be offering him less after seeing just how dependent he is on Ovechkin's offense.
The only downside to this deal is what we got in return. I did say Zubrus was overvalued, and I do think we got more in return than we gave up in the first round draft pick, but I don't think Nvotony was the right guy in return. George McPhee described him as a "third line center" and TSN's analysis agrees. A third line center is the LAST thing we need. Along with Beech, Sutherby, Laich, and Gordon, this team would win the "third line of the year awards." McPhee should have either thrown in another defenseman (perhaps Eminger or Clymer) or relented on the 1st round pick for a 2nd or 3rd (since this a weak draft and that late 1st round pick is essentially equal to a mid-second in another year's draft) and gotten a young defenseman or forward. Among those McPhee could have swiped for Zubrus (in my opinion):
- Dmitri Kalinin
- Ales Kotalik
- Derek Roy
- Jochen Hecht
So while I don't feel that it was a BAD trade, it wasn't the BEST trade that could have been made.

Overall Grade: C

Trade #4: Jamie Heward to LAK for 5th Round Pick
This is just getting the most bang for your buck here. Jamie Heward was going to be a UFA this summer and is clearly the least valuable player to this rebuild. It hurts me to say this, but the 5th round pick from LA was probably the best offer out there. It just pains me that Muir didn't get shipped out as well.

Overall Grade: C+

Bruins 3 - Capitals 2 (SO): Brought to You by the Letter...

Now many reading this might think the "O" is for Ovechkin, who was held scoreless last night against Boston. Last night made the third consecutive game in which Ovie did not register a point. Indeed, NHL.com's recap of the game focused entirely on Ovechkin's inability to score. They spoke of how Zdeno Chara held the Russian Phenom in check and about how frustrated Ovechkin seemed after the game.

But the "O" I'm referring to is "O" for offense! To pin this loss on Ovechkin's lack of scoring is ridiculous, considering that before the three-game scoreless streak, Ovechkin had scored in 13 straight games. Let's be honest folks, you can't put that kind of pressure on a young kid-expecting him to score every game--and have him consistenly meet it. Some games, Ovechkin's gonna not scores, so it's up to the rest of the team to step up.

Certainly in this game, some of the lesser heroes did step up to provide a boost for the Caps. Brooks Laich and Eric Fehr scored the two regulation goals for the Caps. Combined, the two have eight goals on the year. Laich's goal was unassisted while Fehr got help from Richard Zednik (15 points) and Mike Green (9 points). While the less likely heroes did chip in, the other players who were supposed to be helping Ovechkin carry the offensive load were silent.

Chris Clark, Dainus Zubrus, Alexander Semin and Matt Pettinger, who round out the Caps top 5 in scoring, were all scoreless last night. I'll give Semin a break because he was the only one who scored in the shootout, but Alex Ovechkin is supposed to be such an offensive dynamo that he should free up space for other players. That means on nights when Ovie's not scoring, Clark and Zubrus need to step up. Pettinger as well, has not been strong of late.

Putting the blame on Ovechkin for the teams offensive sputterings is preposterous. The offense got help from the "unusual suspects" but they couldn't get the firepower from their stars. If Ovechkin couldn't cash in, then the other big guns needed to step up. We needed some offense last night and #8 wasn't going to carry us there.

A Mid-Season Look: Defense

Caps fans are long since removed from the glory days of intense Capitals hockey. Those days were marked with gritty veterans, stylish young players and, most importantly, exceptional defense. The Capitals have begun to assemble pieces to resemble the first two. They have gritty vets in Clark, Clymer, Brashear and Zubrus as well as young stars in Ovechkin and Semin. But what about defense?
The days of watching Calle Johannson, Mark Tinordi, Sergei Gonchar, Ken Klee, and even Brendan Witt anchoring our blueline are long gone. Now they are replaced by the likes of (and these are listed in order of whom they resemble) Brian Pothier, Shaone Morrisonn, Mike Green, Steve Eminger and Jamie Heward. The lineup is younger, ownerships master plan. But is younger better? Let's look at how the Caps defensive unit has fared this year.

- The Capitals allow 3.40 goals per game (26th in the NHL)
- They allow 34.6 shots against per game (last in the league)
- They have allowed 50 first period goals (5th most in the NHL)
- As a result, they have trailed first 26 times this year (they only have a .192 win percent when trailing first, 4th worst in the league)
- Also as a result, they have trailed at the end of the 1st period 19 times (and only win .105 percent of games in that state, also 4th worst in the NHL)
- To be fair, the 1st period is their best defensive period. They've allowed 56 goals in the 2nd period and 55 in the third (those are both 24th in the league)
- Only three of their defensemen have a positive plus/minus rating* (Bryan Muir +8, Mike Green +3, Lawrence Nycholat +2)
- Their highest paid defenseman, Brian Pothier, is worst on the team in plus/minus* (-9). To be fair, Pothier leads the teams defensemen in ice time (24:59 mins/game)
- However, Brian Pothier does lead the team's defensemen in blocked shots with 94. There are two other d-men with more than 50: Shaone Morrisonn and Steve Eminger. Jamie Heward is also above the league median (42) with 49 blocked shots.
- Brian Pothier is also 10th in the NHL in takeaways (30). Shaone Morrisonn is right behind him at 18th with 26 takeaways.
- The league median in takeaways is 9. Along with Morrisonn and Pothier, Mike Green (19) and Steve Eminger (11) are above that mark.
- Only 2 of their defensemen have more than 50 PIMS. One of them is John Erskine who has only played 18 games, the other is Shaone Morrisonn.
- The league median for PIMs for d-men is 24. Every defenseman who has played 40+ games is above that mark.

* Note: The JET does not consider plus/minus to be an accurate indicator of a player's defensive prowess. In fact, he considers it to be the most useless statistic in sports. He only uses it because the NHL does not do a good job of monitoring more important aspects of defense (how many shots a defenseman blocks, how many shots the goaltender must face when a certain defenseman is on the ice, ect.)

Brian Pothier has been a good addition to this core of young defensemen. Shaone Morrisonn is proving himself to be one of the next great rising defensemen. John Erskine, before he got hurt, was an intimidating and surprising force in the defensive zone. Jamie Heward has been a calming force. Steve Eminger has been streaking hot of late. Mike Green is playing years ahead of where he should be. Lawrence Nycholat has stepped up and proven that he deserves the chance to be an every game defenseman. Jeff Schultz has been good when called upon.
If you're a Capitals fan, you're looking at this and saying "great! We've got a core of young defensemen who are playing incredibly well! We'll be golden at the blueline for years to come."
Not quite.

The first problem for this defensive core is that they still do not have a clear-cut #1 bona-fide defenseman on this roster. Brian Pothier is a great puck-moving d-man, but he is not cut out to be "the guy" at the Caps blueline. Shaone Morrisonn has that potential, but he's probably a few years away. The top line is stocked full of future top-defensive players. That's great...for the future. If the Caps want to win now, they need a stabilizing force at the blueline. A solid, veteran top 4 defenseman who can eat minutes, calm the younger players and provide depth throughout the lineup so Olie Kolzig can get an easy night now and again.

Now, there have been some things that have hurt the Capitals and are things that a veteran defenseman could help the team improve on. These things are skills that a defensive core has to have if they want to be successful. As of right now, I don't think our defensemen can...

#1 Make an Outlet Pass
The biggest and best thing that a team can do to limit shots against and keep the puck out of the net is to get the puck out of their defensive zone. This entails either simply icing the puck (now less common since new rules keep the same, tired defensemen on the ice) or getting the puck and passing it to a forward who can, presumably, take the puck out (lets face it, guys like Ovechkin, Semin and Zubrus can do that). The problem the Capitals defensemen is that they cannot get the puck and do anything with it. They bang it up the boards right to the point men waiting.
What they cannot seem to do is settle the puck in the corner and pass it to the forwards. Instead, they panick and just shoot the puck up the boards. It wouldn't be too bad if they didn't shoot it hard and the puck hit the defenseman before getting out (preventing icing). Unfortunately, the puck can never get out of the zone.
#2 Positioning
I don't know if the NHL approves of or even allows man-to-man defense, but that's what the Capitals do. Rather than follow the conventional defensive strategy (near-side d-man pressures the puck, far-side d-man patrolls the crease, center moves supporting the puck, wings stay with the points) the Capitals seem to play the sort of youth soccer style defense: swarm to the puck.
Too many times I've seen the forwards below the goal line, the defensemen past the face-off dots, the center at the point or the goaltender at the blue line (okay I made up that last part). The Caps look frantic in their defensive zone. They need to play the style of defense that they (presumably) were taught since they were squirts.
The style of defense the Caps play is flawed because it typically leaves one or two fowards in a mismatch. Sometimes one or two forwards will be collapsing around the goal with no one to tie them up. Other times a man will be free in the slot. Or a point man will have a clear shooting channel. The fact is, it allows the other team to create chances that other teams wouldn't give them.
It also doesn't help the breakout passes. It's hard for a forward to catch a breakout pass when he's in the slot and its hard for a defenseman to make a breakout pass from behind the net.
#3 They are Way to Agressive
This has two connotations. The first is the Capitals defensive play in the zone. As mentioned above, they tend to follow the puck, even when its in a non-threatening area (behind the net). The defensemen don't have to attack the puck when the forwards cannot get a shot. Instead of driving at a guy who has the puck directly behind the net and giving him an option, just sit back and prevent him from getting the puck from out of that area. I mean if the puck's back there, the other team can't really score.
The other meaning of the title is the fact that the players (both d-men and forwards) play the body too much. The point of hitting other players is to separate them from the puck. If the defensemen don't come away with the puck or at least knock the guy off the puck, a check is worthless. I have seen the Caps players time after time line up a guy and either miss the check (and end up hopelessly out of position) or hit the puck carrier and have that player (or another player on the team) keep the puck. The Caps need to work on playing the puck and getting it. Puck possession is half the battle. If you have the puck, the other team can't score.

Defense has been the most lacking area of the Capitals game since the season started. Tarik El-Bashir wrote in yesterday's Washington Post Article that the Caps wanted Alex Ovechkin to step up in his defensive role. A quote from the article stated:

Everyone agrees that the 21-year-old Russian's defensive decision making is better than it was a year ago, when he won the Calder Trophy as the NHL's top rookie. But there's a reason Ovechkin has been limited to less than 19 minutes 12 times his season, less than 18 minutes on seven occasions and has a plus-minus rating of minus-6. Hanlon said he wants to play his franchise winger an average of about 24 minutes.

"If it's a 2-1 hockey game in the third period, you're not ever above the puck, ever," Hanlon said. "You can't assume someone else is going to get the puck out. If you aren't exactly where you are supposed to be, it throws everything into chaos. That's why when the game is on the line, there are certain guys who are out there. We want Ovie to be one of those guys, every single night."

So Hanlon's saying that if Ovechkin plays defense, that'll help the Caps win a Stanley Cup? Hmm...sorry Glen. If this team wants to win a Stanley Cup, they need to work on the things I mentioned above. Forget your star player being out of position. What about the other 17 guys on the team who are also all out of position. The Caps need a stabilizing force in the defensive zone. They need to stop panicking. They need to hold their positions. And they need to do it soon.

Capitals Offense: The Numbers Only Tell Half the Story

Welcome to part 1 of my series on evaluating the Capitals mid-way through the season in the main areas: offense, defense, special teams, and goaltending. In this new series, I'll attempt to break down the Capitals in each of these categories based on the statistics, and my observations of nearly 10 Capitals games I saw during my winter break.

#1. Offense
- 3.10 goals/game (9th in league)
- 83 5 on 5 goals (15th in league)
- 26.8 shots per game (22nd in league)
- 50 1st period goals, 49 2nd period goals, 47 3rd period goals
- .682 win percentage when scoring first (17th in league)
- .192 win percent when trailing first (27th in league)
- Score first in 45.83% of games
- Two players with 25+ goals (Ovechkin, Semin)
- Three other players with 10+ goals (Clark, Zubrus, Pettinger)
- Team goal median: 2 goals (league goal median: 3 goals)
- Three players with 40+ points (Ovechkin, Semin, Zubrus)
- Two others with 20+ points (Clark, Pettinger)

The numbers don't lie, the Caps have been darn good on offense this year. That's to be expected with a player like Alex Ovechkin on your roster, but Alex Semin has been an incredible "addition." The only problem is that beyond those two, along with the other three top scorers mentioned, the team is not very deep. By observation, the team tends to score most of its goals on the fly (breakaways, 2 on 1s). The biggest problem the Caps have offensively is that their defensemen cannot make a decent breakout pass, which leads to the Caps getting bogged down in the neutral zone. Ultimately, in the offensive zone, the Capitals strategy mainly consists of dump-and-chase and cycling the puck. These problems are both affected by what I believe is the Capital's achilles heel: passing.

If you've watched a number of Capitals games, one thing about their offense is evident: they can't pass. I've seen too many defensemen fail to hang onto the puck at the point on the power play or mishandle the puck at the blue line. There have been many times the Caps have had odd-man rushes, but were spoiled by a poor pass or inability to catch passes. It's especially problematic with the defensemen, but the forwards also have been known to misplay the puck. In addition, the Capitals tend to have passes broken up because they either take to long holding the puck or don't make a crisp enough pass. All this means that the Caps frequently have to dump the puck into the zone, rather than pass it in (as almost all other teams can do).

In addition, the team must cycle the puck because they cannot space themselves accordingly. They can't make a pass to the point and then set up a rotating offense where they can get people into shooting channels. Generally, when the Caps have the puck in the offensive zone, the puck will go into the corner. Two Caps players will converge on the puck along with the defenseman. One player will wait alongside the scrum, typically below the goal line, waiting for the puck to squirt loose to them. The near defenseman pinches down and the far defenseman moves toward the center.
Now, there are two major problems with this setup. #1 is that there is nobody on the far side of the ice, which allows the other team to swing the puck to the boards on the other side where their far-side defenseman can pick up the puck and bring it out. Or they'll simply fling the puck around the boards and past our far-side defender, who is too far out of position to keep the puck in. It's happened many times before. But the second problem is even more troubling...no one is in the slot!!! So if and when the Caps do come out of that scrum in the corner with the puck, they have virtually no options. If it, say, squirts to the guy waiting below the goal line, all he can do is turn away from the scrum to end up behind the net with nobody to pass to besides the far side defenseman. But typically, the other team's defeseman, who has been camping out in front of the net, will pinch down, pin the player with the puck behind the net and take it.
A simple remedy to this solution is to not have two people converge on the puck. It is a waste of ice to have two of our players on top of each other (particularly when there is one other guy three feet away). Instead, the winger on the near side (the side which the puck is on) should pin the puck on the boards. The center should wait for the puck to squirt out, the defensemen should be where they were and the far-side wing should move to the slot, wating for a centering pass from either the center or near-side wing. Another option is to have the far-side defenseman pinch in and move to the high slot (again, waiting for the pass) and have the three forwards converge on the puck and get it to one of the defensemen. Either way, the Caps cannot continue to have their three forwards occupying a five-foot area while their defensemen hang out in la-la land.

While the Caps offense has been good, it has not been great. If the Caps could be more efficient with the puck in their offensive zone, they could generate more scoring opportunities and draw more penalties.

Stay Tuned: Tomorrow...DEFENSE!

Why ESPN.com Angers Me!

This is all per Scott Burnside's NHL "mid-season predicitions" on ESPN.com

Capitals coach Glen Hanlon once again is showing he might be one of the most underrated coaches in the game, having guided his team to a 20-21-7 record at the break. The Caps are just three points out of the eighth spot, but rank 13th overall as injuries and a lack of talent are starting to eat away at the hardworking squad.

First-half surprises: The emergence of former Senators defender Brian Pothier as a top-notch leader (he is averaging 24:59 in ice time) and the play of enigmatic Alexander Semin (27 goals, 47 points), who is taking some pressure off Alexander Ovechkin.

Second-half questions: Will ownership free up cash to bring in some offensive help before the trade deadline? Will anyone in the perpetually half-empty Verizon Center notice?

Where they'll finish: It won't be for lack of effort, but the talent-thin
Caps won't have quite enough and will end up fourth in the division and 12th in
the jam-packed East.

Now, let me go through all the points step by step:

Capitals coach Glen Hanlon once again is showing he might be one of the most underrated coaches in the game, having guided his team to a 20-21-7 record at the break.

First off, I don't know how you can be underrated as a coach when your team has a losing record at the midway mark of the season while in the top 10 in scoring with a former Vezina trophy winner in Olaf Kolzig (I know, its been a while, but he still has a .910 save percentage and 3.12 GAA). Don't get me wrong, Hanlon's a great motivator who has gotten this team to play lightyears ahead of where they should be, but the team still looks frantic in the defensive zone and cannot sustain pressure in the offensive end. As much as other Capitals faithful would like me to applaud Burnsie for this, I don't think he's quite right.

The Caps are just three points out of the eighth spot, but rank 13th overall as injuries and a lack of talent are starting to eat away at the hardworking squad.

I'll agree about the injuries, but the Caps have talent. Maybe not great talent like other teams might but they still have enough to keep from getting embarassed. Most of the players who came here as low level players (Clark, Pettinger, Zubrus, Morrisonn, Green) have proven to be more underrated than others thought and teams that still overspend are not necessarily getting the bang for their buck.

Will ownership free up cash to bring in some offensive help before the trade deadline? Will anyone in the perpetually half-empty Verizon Center notice?

I'll start with the second part first: no. Not as long as the Washington Post glosses over a Caps win with news that some Western Conference NBA coach went on a tirade or Barry Bonds might get caught for steriod use. While Ted Leonsis is partially to blame for not using his talented young players as good marketing tools, no one can blame him for the fact that his team is barely on national television, gets shafted by Comcast whenever the Wizards are playing and are passed over by the Post in favor of coverage of what Joe Gibbs ate for brunch.
The first question is an interesting one posed by Burnside: will management pony up the dough to give the Caps the offensive help they so desperately crave? My answer: why would they?
What Burnside doesn't realize is...
- The Washington Capitals are averaging 3.10 goals per game (that's ninth in the league), ahead of his precious Thrashers (2.98 goals/game), Carolina (3.06), Detroit (3.02), Montreal (2.90), and Dallas (2.58)
- The Capitals have two 25+ goal scorers (Ovechkin and Semin) and three others with 10+ goals (Clark, Zubrus, Pettinger)
- Washington is 12th in the NHL in power play goals scored (45) and are ahead of the New York Rangers (44), Buffalo Sabres (42), and Calgary Flames (37)
If the Capitals have a flaw to fix, it's defensively. Granted that's a place where they've been plagued with injuries (Muir, Erskine, Morrisonn, Pothier, Green were all out for multiple games), but they have long been last in the league in shots against per game (in my mind, the greatest indicator of defensive prowess) and look frantic in their own zone. They have had rookies playing extended minutes for a long time, and while this is good for their experience, it hurts the Capitals. If I were in charge, I'd trade some of my younger forwards (particularly a left wing since we're loaded there) for a youngish, physical, top-4 defenseman. The Caps need help on defense Scott.

It won't be for lack of effort, but the talent-thin Caps won't have quite enough and will end up fourth in the division and 12th in the jam-packed East.

We'll beat out Philly, I think. Florida too. The Islanders, Toronto, Boston and Pittsburgh are all teams that could fade out or move up in the next few months. I'd say 12th is a good place, since we could finish anywhere from 13th to 9th.

Scott Burnside, no disrespect, but watch a Caps game and maybe get your story straight.