After a Long While Off, the JET is Back and Looking at the Trade Deadline Deals!

It's the most wonderful time of the year! No not Christmas! Trade Deadline Day! And the JET spent it watching the live TSN newscast of the many trades and signings that came about. While there were certainly big trades of high profile players being sent to contenders, all the JET cares about is who got dealt to and fro the Caps. So without further ado...

Trade #1: Richard Zednik to NYI for 2nd round Draft Pick
Now this year, the JET is not a big fan of trading for picks, especially because this draft is rumored to be one of the weakest in recent memory. Second round picks are usually fringe NHL talent and the Isle's pick figures to be around a mid-rounder (so somewhere in the late 40s-early 50s). Whoever the Caps use this pick on will, in all likelihood, not be a player who can step in immediately and probably won't be close to the NHL within 3 years (if ever).
That said, Zednik is a UFA who the Caps couldn't resign. He's been nagged with injury problems and has been inconsistent in scoring. I knew once the Caps traded for him in the offseason that he wouldn't be more than a secondary scoring threat who the Caps would try to use to get some more young assets later in the season. Most people thought Zednik would get traded for the 3rd round draft pick the Caps had previously sent to Montreal. But instead, George McPhee pulled off a 2nd rounder for Zednik. Big ups to McPhee who once again traded a player for a much higher draft pick than he was worth (see Witt for Beech and 1st rounder).

Overall Grade: B

Trade #2: Lawrence Nycholat to OTT for Andy Hedlund, 6th round pick
This is an even trade, in every sense. It's literally, one minor league defenseman for another. The only difference is the 6th round pick coming the Caps way which can be disregarded since even in very strong drafts (which I mentioned, this is not) there are not many NHL players or top AHL players that are drafted in the 6th round.
There is no TSN scouting report on Hedlund, so there is nothing to expect from him. All in all, this trade was probably made to allow the Caps to move Helbling with Zubrus to Buffalo. If you don't hear of Hedlund for a couple of years (unless you live in Hershey) I wouldn't be surprised.

Trade #3: Dainus Zubrus, Timo Helbling to BUF for Jiri Novotny, 1st round pick
Losing Zubrus, to many Caps faithful, means losing a critical part of our team: the first line center. The only problem is that Zubrus is, by nature, a right wing! This trade makes sense and is, dare I say brilliant, for a number of reasons:
1) The loss of Zubrus will force management to go out and acquire a legitimate 1st line center. Seeing this team lose faceoff after faceoff, while watching Ovechkin skate around with no one to pass to him will, hopefully, show them the light to trade for or sign a top line center man and pay him the money he needs. Simply bringing back Zuby or saying that Nicklas Backstrom won't cut it either George. This team is weak down the middle and Zubrus was merely keeping our front line from looking pathetic. If he's brought back, it should be as a right wing (we're also pretty weak at that position). Backstrom, right now, is an AHLer in my mind. Maybe he can step in and be the 2nd line center, or maybe not. As of right now, there are two glaring holes in the middle of the ice.
2) We might just be getting something for nothing. I heard the reports on XM radio that Zubrus may be coming back to DC in the offseason and, quite frankly, I think that's the case. Once I heard he was traded to Buffalo, I rejoiced because I knew that the Sabres don't have the cap room to sign more than 1 center. That means Zubrus will be on the market again this summer and I'm sure he'd be willing to come back here to play with his buddy Ovechkin.
3) I feel that Zubrus' value has been inflated by playing with Ovechkin. He's had record years when he's played on the same line with Ovechkin, as has Chris Clark. A few years ago, no way Zubrus would be worth this much, so we're getting more than he's worth.
Another element is that Zubrus was asking for $3 million per year for 5 years. Zubrus may be overvalued, but he's not worth that much. I think McPhee recognizes that and also realizes that Zuby will only be on the 2nd or 3rd line in Buffalo. I believe his production will taper off in Buffalo and so, when he becomes a free agent, he'll be worth LESS than he is now. Therefore, the Caps might just be able to resign Zubrus in July for around $2-2.5 million a year (a salary range he should be in) because other teams will be offering him less after seeing just how dependent he is on Ovechkin's offense.
The only downside to this deal is what we got in return. I did say Zubrus was overvalued, and I do think we got more in return than we gave up in the first round draft pick, but I don't think Nvotony was the right guy in return. George McPhee described him as a "third line center" and TSN's analysis agrees. A third line center is the LAST thing we need. Along with Beech, Sutherby, Laich, and Gordon, this team would win the "third line of the year awards." McPhee should have either thrown in another defenseman (perhaps Eminger or Clymer) or relented on the 1st round pick for a 2nd or 3rd (since this a weak draft and that late 1st round pick is essentially equal to a mid-second in another year's draft) and gotten a young defenseman or forward. Among those McPhee could have swiped for Zubrus (in my opinion):
- Dmitri Kalinin
- Ales Kotalik
- Derek Roy
- Jochen Hecht
So while I don't feel that it was a BAD trade, it wasn't the BEST trade that could have been made.

Overall Grade: C

Trade #4: Jamie Heward to LAK for 5th Round Pick
This is just getting the most bang for your buck here. Jamie Heward was going to be a UFA this summer and is clearly the least valuable player to this rebuild. It hurts me to say this, but the 5th round pick from LA was probably the best offer out there. It just pains me that Muir didn't get shipped out as well.

Overall Grade: C+

Capitals (20-21-7) vs. Hurricanes (25-19-6): Keys to the Games...

#1. Don't Fall Behind
There are two factors working against Washington in this key. The first is that they are terrible at coming from behind. The second is that Carolina never falls off a lead. The Capitals have only won two of their 19 games when trailing after one period (.192 win percent) and only won two of 21 when trailing at the second intermission (.095 win percent). Also, when trailing first, the Caps are 5-17-4 (.192 win percent, 4th worst in league). Compare that to when the Caps score first, they are 15-4-3 (.682 win percentage). Scoring the first goal and getting a lead early usually gives the Caps a confidence boost, while falling behind early puts them behind the eight ball.
But for a team that has a hard time coming back from early deficits, Carolina is the worst team to be facing. The Hurricanes are best in the league both in winning percentage when leading after the 1st period (.941) and the 2nd (1.000). In fact, Carolina has never fallen in regulation in a game where they lead after the first period. They only have one overtime/shootout loss where they led after the first period. In addition, when Carolina scores first they have a winning percentage that is fourth best in the league (.789). When trailing first, they are a mediocre .323. The good news, for the Caps, is that Carolina has only led first in 19 of their 50 games, as opposed to the Capitals who have scored first 22 times of 48.
So the first period will be a critical one. If the Caps can score first and keep a lead into the second, they will have a good chance. If Carolina scores first and gets a lead entering the intermission, Washington's already in a deep pit. The saving grace for Washington is that Carolina has an even goals for to against ratio for the first period. The 'Canes have scored 38 goals in the first (21st in the league) and allowed 38 (9th in the league). By comparison, the Caps also have an even goals for:against ratio with 50 goals for (6th in league) versus 50 against (5th worst). So the scoring battle looks to be a coin flip. The Caps'll have to outwork Carolina to grab the early edge.
#2. 'Canes Spread Out Attack
Unfortunately for the Capitals, their defensive strategy cannot simply key into one player on Carolina to shut him down (as many teams would do to Ovechkin). Three different Hurricanes lead the teams in the three offensive categories. Ray Whitney leads the team in points (53), Rod Brind'Amour leads the team in assists (39) and Justin Williams leads the team in goals (23).
None of these stats look particularly frightening, but the fact that so many guys are so close to them in scoring is what makes that Carolina offense so terrifying. Carolina has...
- Three 20+ goal scorers (Williams 23, Staal 22, Cole 21)
- Three other 10+ goal scorers (Whitney 19, Walker 16, Brind'Amour 13)
- They have two players with 50+ points (Brind'Amour and Whitney)
- Three others with 40+ points (Williams, Cole, Staal)
- They have seven total players with 20+ points
This spread out offense has worked wonders for the Hurricanes. They are 12th in the league in goals/game (3.06) and average 30.6 shots per game. Their only "flaw" on offense is their power play where they are only 16.4% effective. Washington needs to play a solid offensive game to shut down this explosive offensive core.
#3. Pad the Lead
Unfortunately for the Caps, they have been on the wrong side of close games. In one-goal games, the Capitals only have a .294 win percentage (3rd worst in the league). Luckily, the Caps have only played in 17 one-goal games. But while they lose a lot of close games, they also don't do well in wide margin games. They've lost 14 of 24 games in which the goal differential was 3 goals. But they have won 10 of those games, as opposed to the mere 5 they've won in one goal games.
But the Caps tend to do better in two goal games. They have 5 wins in 7 games when the goal differential is 2. The fact is that the Caps tend to win more games when the lead is bigger. That doesn't offset the fact that they also lose a lot of blowouts. If the Caps can avoid those close games, or at least keep their leads bigger, they will have a much better chance of winning.
Players to Watch For...
Carolina: Cam Ward
For 'Canes goaltender Cam Ward, the last few games before the All-Star break were a jarring experience. After two straight games with save percentages over .940 (wins against the Islanders and Leafs) Ward feel off the sort of play that won him the Conn Smythe Trophy last June. Following a no-decision with the Panthers in which he allowed 3 goals on 31 shots, Ward gave up 8 goals in 55 total shots in his next two games (both OT/shootout losses to Atlanta and Tampa). Now, after the All-Star break, Ward looks to regain his stellar play against the Capitals. Against Washington, Ward's got a 2.96 GAA and .903 save percentage. His numbers against Washington have been slightly better this year (2.50 GAA, .909 save percent), but for the 'Canes to win, Ward must be stellar.
Washington: Olie Kolzig
Olie Kolzig has also had a stretch before the break marked by inconsistent play. In the five games before the break, Kolzig allowed 5 goals twice but also had two games with save percentages above .935. This has been the trend for Kolzig and his inconsistent defensive corps. Now, with Brian Pothier out, the Caps will need more young defensemen to step in.
As highlighted by my column yesterday, the Caps defense is still lacking. Kolzig has had great sucess against Carolina in his career 2.15 GAA, .925 save percentage and if the Caps want to win, Kolzig will have to be a stabilizing force.