Panthers 6 - Capitals 3: Brought to You by the Letter...

As in: how the hell do you lose to the Panthers...AGAIN?
Not only how do you lose to the Panthers, but how do you keep losing games that you HAD to win and were SUPPOSED to win.
6-14-0 in their last 20 games has basically knocked the Capitals out of the playoffs. 3 of those games were against the bottom feeding Panthers, 1 against the lowly Coyotes. Winnning those four games keeps them even during that last stretch and now 1 point behind Carolina for the #8 playoff spot.
Instead, the Capitals have played flat, struggled mightily on the power play and basically looked like a bad team. Not and inexperienced team--a BAD team. Some of the numbers from last nights Panthers game are a microcosm of what has happened to the Capitals in the last 20 games:
- 2 for 9 on the power play (including a boatload of wasted 5 on 3 time)
- 3 for 6 on the penalty kill
- Outshot 32-30
- Olie allows 6 goals on 32 shots (.813 save percentage)
- Capitals fell behind early (2-1 at the end of the first) and then fell further behind (5-1 at the end of the second).

So in a nutshell, bad defense, sloppy play, flat early, uninspired afterwards. So what's the reason?

Is it coaching? Well certainly when your team started out 15-10-7 and then loses 14 of 20 games following it, you've gotta hold some of the blame. The Capitals seem to be a team that comes out either unprepared or just flat most nights. Other teams take advantage of their early lull and put them behind the eight ball. That in turn disheartens the team who fall further downhill and by the time they pick themselves up and play well, its too late.
Thats the other thing: they still play well. If it were a matter of them getting outplayed when they hustled and worked hard, it would be one thing. But when the Caps show up to play, they are nearly unstoppable. If theres inconsitency, it has to be with the coach. I thought Hanlon was a good motivator; I guess I was wrong.

It is management? Well as I said earlier, they can play well so the talent's still there. But its just so few and far in between. I have never liked George McPhee and never supported the plan to rebuild through the draft. Why? George McPhee CANNOT draft. Let me give you an example, he had 3 first round picks in the 2001 NHL draft. He spent them on Boyd Gordon, Steve Eminger and Alexander Semin. Only one of those guys, Semin, has proven to be worth the first round pick spent on him. In that same year, McPhee passed on Marek Zidlicky and Marek Svatos as well as a bevy of young goaltenders who could be groomed as Kolzig's successor (Cam Ward, Peter Budaj and Cristobal Huet are in that list).
But this year specifically, the Caps got hot early. They had what looked like the opportunity to make the playoffs with, arguably, the least talent of anyone. What did McPhee do? Nothing. Did he really think that this team would survive into January and February when players started getting banged up? What if Ovechkin, Semin or Olie had gotten hurt? It could have knocked us to the bottom. But instead of reinforcing a young sparky team, he let injuries plague us and allowed our AHL guys to get NHL minutes. Not a bad idea in philosophy, but it hurt the Caps chances at the playoffs. The fact is, he should have been making deals like the Jurcina trade in December. He sat on his hands too long and allowed this to become the year that never was.

Is it the system? Well show me a team that dumps-and-chases on the power play. Has three players on one side of the ice when cycling the puck in the offensive zone. Has a goaltender who gives up huge rebounds with a defense in front of him who can't clear traffic. Basically doesn't realize that most of their goals come from rushes and won't spread the ice. A team that can't make a breakout pass, ices the puck than most other teams, cannot establish a semblance of a solid powerplay and is constanly out of position on defense.
Yes, the system is at fault. Whoever is in charge of drawing up the gameplan needs to be fired. This system was designed for the old NHL, as was this team. Now, you need speedy players, mobile defensemen (McPhee's still picking those 6'5 guys who can't keep up with the fast forwards) and solid young goaltending. The breakout pass, weaving into the zone and an agressive forcheck are all things that make a team successful now. No one has figured this out. The system needs to be revamped. The more you teach these young kids to do the bad things the Caps do now (like dump into the zone when your team is up a man), the harder it is for them to "unlearn" it.

So basically all we have to do is suffer through another 30 games before more promises of "playoffs next year" come from Ted and George. The problem is, and I've said it before, it should have been this year.

Capitals (20-21-7) vs. Hurricanes (25-19-6): Keys to the Games...

#1. Don't Fall Behind
There are two factors working against Washington in this key. The first is that they are terrible at coming from behind. The second is that Carolina never falls off a lead. The Capitals have only won two of their 19 games when trailing after one period (.192 win percent) and only won two of 21 when trailing at the second intermission (.095 win percent). Also, when trailing first, the Caps are 5-17-4 (.192 win percent, 4th worst in league). Compare that to when the Caps score first, they are 15-4-3 (.682 win percentage). Scoring the first goal and getting a lead early usually gives the Caps a confidence boost, while falling behind early puts them behind the eight ball.
But for a team that has a hard time coming back from early deficits, Carolina is the worst team to be facing. The Hurricanes are best in the league both in winning percentage when leading after the 1st period (.941) and the 2nd (1.000). In fact, Carolina has never fallen in regulation in a game where they lead after the first period. They only have one overtime/shootout loss where they led after the first period. In addition, when Carolina scores first they have a winning percentage that is fourth best in the league (.789). When trailing first, they are a mediocre .323. The good news, for the Caps, is that Carolina has only led first in 19 of their 50 games, as opposed to the Capitals who have scored first 22 times of 48.
So the first period will be a critical one. If the Caps can score first and keep a lead into the second, they will have a good chance. If Carolina scores first and gets a lead entering the intermission, Washington's already in a deep pit. The saving grace for Washington is that Carolina has an even goals for to against ratio for the first period. The 'Canes have scored 38 goals in the first (21st in the league) and allowed 38 (9th in the league). By comparison, the Caps also have an even goals for:against ratio with 50 goals for (6th in league) versus 50 against (5th worst). So the scoring battle looks to be a coin flip. The Caps'll have to outwork Carolina to grab the early edge.
#2. 'Canes Spread Out Attack
Unfortunately for the Capitals, their defensive strategy cannot simply key into one player on Carolina to shut him down (as many teams would do to Ovechkin). Three different Hurricanes lead the teams in the three offensive categories. Ray Whitney leads the team in points (53), Rod Brind'Amour leads the team in assists (39) and Justin Williams leads the team in goals (23).
None of these stats look particularly frightening, but the fact that so many guys are so close to them in scoring is what makes that Carolina offense so terrifying. Carolina has...
- Three 20+ goal scorers (Williams 23, Staal 22, Cole 21)
- Three other 10+ goal scorers (Whitney 19, Walker 16, Brind'Amour 13)
- They have two players with 50+ points (Brind'Amour and Whitney)
- Three others with 40+ points (Williams, Cole, Staal)
- They have seven total players with 20+ points
This spread out offense has worked wonders for the Hurricanes. They are 12th in the league in goals/game (3.06) and average 30.6 shots per game. Their only "flaw" on offense is their power play where they are only 16.4% effective. Washington needs to play a solid offensive game to shut down this explosive offensive core.
#3. Pad the Lead
Unfortunately for the Caps, they have been on the wrong side of close games. In one-goal games, the Capitals only have a .294 win percentage (3rd worst in the league). Luckily, the Caps have only played in 17 one-goal games. But while they lose a lot of close games, they also don't do well in wide margin games. They've lost 14 of 24 games in which the goal differential was 3 goals. But they have won 10 of those games, as opposed to the mere 5 they've won in one goal games.
But the Caps tend to do better in two goal games. They have 5 wins in 7 games when the goal differential is 2. The fact is that the Caps tend to win more games when the lead is bigger. That doesn't offset the fact that they also lose a lot of blowouts. If the Caps can avoid those close games, or at least keep their leads bigger, they will have a much better chance of winning.
Players to Watch For...
Carolina: Cam Ward
For 'Canes goaltender Cam Ward, the last few games before the All-Star break were a jarring experience. After two straight games with save percentages over .940 (wins against the Islanders and Leafs) Ward feel off the sort of play that won him the Conn Smythe Trophy last June. Following a no-decision with the Panthers in which he allowed 3 goals on 31 shots, Ward gave up 8 goals in 55 total shots in his next two games (both OT/shootout losses to Atlanta and Tampa). Now, after the All-Star break, Ward looks to regain his stellar play against the Capitals. Against Washington, Ward's got a 2.96 GAA and .903 save percentage. His numbers against Washington have been slightly better this year (2.50 GAA, .909 save percent), but for the 'Canes to win, Ward must be stellar.
Washington: Olie Kolzig
Olie Kolzig has also had a stretch before the break marked by inconsistent play. In the five games before the break, Kolzig allowed 5 goals twice but also had two games with save percentages above .935. This has been the trend for Kolzig and his inconsistent defensive corps. Now, with Brian Pothier out, the Caps will need more young defensemen to step in.
As highlighted by my column yesterday, the Caps defense is still lacking. Kolzig has had great sucess against Carolina in his career 2.15 GAA, .925 save percentage and if the Caps want to win, Kolzig will have to be a stabilizing force.