Panthers 6 - Capitals 3: Brought to You by the Letter...

As in: how the hell do you lose to the Panthers...AGAIN?
Not only how do you lose to the Panthers, but how do you keep losing games that you HAD to win and were SUPPOSED to win.
6-14-0 in their last 20 games has basically knocked the Capitals out of the playoffs. 3 of those games were against the bottom feeding Panthers, 1 against the lowly Coyotes. Winnning those four games keeps them even during that last stretch and now 1 point behind Carolina for the #8 playoff spot.
Instead, the Capitals have played flat, struggled mightily on the power play and basically looked like a bad team. Not and inexperienced team--a BAD team. Some of the numbers from last nights Panthers game are a microcosm of what has happened to the Capitals in the last 20 games:
- 2 for 9 on the power play (including a boatload of wasted 5 on 3 time)
- 3 for 6 on the penalty kill
- Outshot 32-30
- Olie allows 6 goals on 32 shots (.813 save percentage)
- Capitals fell behind early (2-1 at the end of the first) and then fell further behind (5-1 at the end of the second).

So in a nutshell, bad defense, sloppy play, flat early, uninspired afterwards. So what's the reason?

Is it coaching? Well certainly when your team started out 15-10-7 and then loses 14 of 20 games following it, you've gotta hold some of the blame. The Capitals seem to be a team that comes out either unprepared or just flat most nights. Other teams take advantage of their early lull and put them behind the eight ball. That in turn disheartens the team who fall further downhill and by the time they pick themselves up and play well, its too late.
Thats the other thing: they still play well. If it were a matter of them getting outplayed when they hustled and worked hard, it would be one thing. But when the Caps show up to play, they are nearly unstoppable. If theres inconsitency, it has to be with the coach. I thought Hanlon was a good motivator; I guess I was wrong.

It is management? Well as I said earlier, they can play well so the talent's still there. But its just so few and far in between. I have never liked George McPhee and never supported the plan to rebuild through the draft. Why? George McPhee CANNOT draft. Let me give you an example, he had 3 first round picks in the 2001 NHL draft. He spent them on Boyd Gordon, Steve Eminger and Alexander Semin. Only one of those guys, Semin, has proven to be worth the first round pick spent on him. In that same year, McPhee passed on Marek Zidlicky and Marek Svatos as well as a bevy of young goaltenders who could be groomed as Kolzig's successor (Cam Ward, Peter Budaj and Cristobal Huet are in that list).
But this year specifically, the Caps got hot early. They had what looked like the opportunity to make the playoffs with, arguably, the least talent of anyone. What did McPhee do? Nothing. Did he really think that this team would survive into January and February when players started getting banged up? What if Ovechkin, Semin or Olie had gotten hurt? It could have knocked us to the bottom. But instead of reinforcing a young sparky team, he let injuries plague us and allowed our AHL guys to get NHL minutes. Not a bad idea in philosophy, but it hurt the Caps chances at the playoffs. The fact is, he should have been making deals like the Jurcina trade in December. He sat on his hands too long and allowed this to become the year that never was.

Is it the system? Well show me a team that dumps-and-chases on the power play. Has three players on one side of the ice when cycling the puck in the offensive zone. Has a goaltender who gives up huge rebounds with a defense in front of him who can't clear traffic. Basically doesn't realize that most of their goals come from rushes and won't spread the ice. A team that can't make a breakout pass, ices the puck than most other teams, cannot establish a semblance of a solid powerplay and is constanly out of position on defense.
Yes, the system is at fault. Whoever is in charge of drawing up the gameplan needs to be fired. This system was designed for the old NHL, as was this team. Now, you need speedy players, mobile defensemen (McPhee's still picking those 6'5 guys who can't keep up with the fast forwards) and solid young goaltending. The breakout pass, weaving into the zone and an agressive forcheck are all things that make a team successful now. No one has figured this out. The system needs to be revamped. The more you teach these young kids to do the bad things the Caps do now (like dump into the zone when your team is up a man), the harder it is for them to "unlearn" it.

So basically all we have to do is suffer through another 30 games before more promises of "playoffs next year" come from Ted and George. The problem is, and I've said it before, it should have been this year.

Doesn't It Seem Like Just Yesterday that...

We were talking about the playoffs? Oh wait, it was just yesterday. Well...not quite--but it was just a month ago. On December 16, the Capitals defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 4-1. Dainus Zubrus, Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin accounted for all the Capitals scoring. Olie Kolzig made 21 saves. It was Washington's 32nd game of the season

The Capitals' record was 15-10-7. They were five games above .500. Now as January is about to end, the Capitals have gone on a horrid streak of 6-13-0 to put themselves 2 games below the .500 mark and are 21-23-7. Back then, the Capitals hopes of the playoffs were flying high. Now, they are 7 points out of that #8 spot. To put it into perspective, if the Capitals had continued at the pace they were playing at before December 16 (1.15 points/game), they would have about 59 points, 10 more than they have now. Thus they'd have approximately 5 wins more (and thus 5 losses less) making their record 26-18-7. That would put us in second place in our division (a spot that we occupied on December 16) and in 6th place in the East.

So what's the problem? What happened to make the Capitals fall off?

Some say the Caps were just hot early. Well you don't just get hot for more than a third of the season and then play horribly for another third. By that logic, its conceivable that the Caps could get incredibly hot and make the playoffs.

Others say that the injuries hurt the Caps. Specifically, they point to the injuries of Erskine, Zednik, and Muir (don't forget, Heward, Morrisonn and Pothier missed multiple games during our stretch). But lets look at the injuries and the injured's impact on the team.

- Richard Zednik's been hurt since 12/2 when he suffered the groin injury. In 20 games, he has 5 goals and 13 points.
- John Erskine was injured in that December 16 game against the Flyers. He is third on the team in PIMs (despite only playing 18 games) and has 1 goal and 5 points (and - 5)
- Brian Muir was injured December 19 against Tampa. He has 3 goals and 5 points in 19 games and is a +8.

But looking at the people who came up and replaced them...
- Boyd Gordon has 2 goals and 14 points in 42 games. He is also 51% on faceoffs (highest on the team of anyone with more than 100 faceoffs taken)
- Lawrence Nycholat has 2 goals and 8 points in 17 games but is only a -3.
- Mike Green has 2 goals and 8 points in 42 games and is only a -1.

So it doesn't appear that the injuries put the Caps behind the eight ball too much. Granted, George McPhee could've gone out and gotten a proven defenseman to anchor the defense rather than throwing inexperienced players into the lineup (after all, we could've pushed to make the playoffs). But still, the loss of 3 guys who weren't helping too much (one of whom will be dealt soon) didn't knock us out of the playoffs.

The fact is, since then, Olie and Brent haven't been playing spectacularly. The defense has looked shaky. The power play's been failing. The fact is: the team ran out of gas because of a lack of depth. It turns out Olie, Ovie and Semin can't carry the team. Zubrus doesn't show up every day. Green and Nycholat are inexperienced, Eminger bounces around like a yo-yo. Heward is slow. Pothier is not a #1 defenseman (no matter how hard we wish) and beyond that second line, we have no firepower. The season is slipping away. Tomorrow I'll break down which players should go and who we should be looking for in return. But Ted and George's excuse of needing to go through growing pains is done. We could've made the playoffs this year. And we'd better make it next year.

Oh, and if the Caps had played at the rate they were in the beginning of the year, they'd have wound up with 95 points and a sure playoff spot.

Why ESPN.com Angers Me!

This is all per Scott Burnside's NHL "mid-season predicitions" on ESPN.com

Capitals coach Glen Hanlon once again is showing he might be one of the most underrated coaches in the game, having guided his team to a 20-21-7 record at the break. The Caps are just three points out of the eighth spot, but rank 13th overall as injuries and a lack of talent are starting to eat away at the hardworking squad.

First-half surprises: The emergence of former Senators defender Brian Pothier as a top-notch leader (he is averaging 24:59 in ice time) and the play of enigmatic Alexander Semin (27 goals, 47 points), who is taking some pressure off Alexander Ovechkin.

Second-half questions: Will ownership free up cash to bring in some offensive help before the trade deadline? Will anyone in the perpetually half-empty Verizon Center notice?

Where they'll finish: It won't be for lack of effort, but the talent-thin
Caps won't have quite enough and will end up fourth in the division and 12th in
the jam-packed East.

Now, let me go through all the points step by step:

Capitals coach Glen Hanlon once again is showing he might be one of the most underrated coaches in the game, having guided his team to a 20-21-7 record at the break.

First off, I don't know how you can be underrated as a coach when your team has a losing record at the midway mark of the season while in the top 10 in scoring with a former Vezina trophy winner in Olaf Kolzig (I know, its been a while, but he still has a .910 save percentage and 3.12 GAA). Don't get me wrong, Hanlon's a great motivator who has gotten this team to play lightyears ahead of where they should be, but the team still looks frantic in the defensive zone and cannot sustain pressure in the offensive end. As much as other Capitals faithful would like me to applaud Burnsie for this, I don't think he's quite right.

The Caps are just three points out of the eighth spot, but rank 13th overall as injuries and a lack of talent are starting to eat away at the hardworking squad.

I'll agree about the injuries, but the Caps have talent. Maybe not great talent like other teams might but they still have enough to keep from getting embarassed. Most of the players who came here as low level players (Clark, Pettinger, Zubrus, Morrisonn, Green) have proven to be more underrated than others thought and teams that still overspend are not necessarily getting the bang for their buck.

Will ownership free up cash to bring in some offensive help before the trade deadline? Will anyone in the perpetually half-empty Verizon Center notice?

I'll start with the second part first: no. Not as long as the Washington Post glosses over a Caps win with news that some Western Conference NBA coach went on a tirade or Barry Bonds might get caught for steriod use. While Ted Leonsis is partially to blame for not using his talented young players as good marketing tools, no one can blame him for the fact that his team is barely on national television, gets shafted by Comcast whenever the Wizards are playing and are passed over by the Post in favor of coverage of what Joe Gibbs ate for brunch.
The first question is an interesting one posed by Burnside: will management pony up the dough to give the Caps the offensive help they so desperately crave? My answer: why would they?
What Burnside doesn't realize is...
- The Washington Capitals are averaging 3.10 goals per game (that's ninth in the league), ahead of his precious Thrashers (2.98 goals/game), Carolina (3.06), Detroit (3.02), Montreal (2.90), and Dallas (2.58)
- The Capitals have two 25+ goal scorers (Ovechkin and Semin) and three others with 10+ goals (Clark, Zubrus, Pettinger)
- Washington is 12th in the NHL in power play goals scored (45) and are ahead of the New York Rangers (44), Buffalo Sabres (42), and Calgary Flames (37)
If the Capitals have a flaw to fix, it's defensively. Granted that's a place where they've been plagued with injuries (Muir, Erskine, Morrisonn, Pothier, Green were all out for multiple games), but they have long been last in the league in shots against per game (in my mind, the greatest indicator of defensive prowess) and look frantic in their own zone. They have had rookies playing extended minutes for a long time, and while this is good for their experience, it hurts the Capitals. If I were in charge, I'd trade some of my younger forwards (particularly a left wing since we're loaded there) for a youngish, physical, top-4 defenseman. The Caps need help on defense Scott.

It won't be for lack of effort, but the talent-thin Caps won't have quite enough and will end up fourth in the division and 12th in the jam-packed East.

We'll beat out Philly, I think. Florida too. The Islanders, Toronto, Boston and Pittsburgh are all teams that could fade out or move up in the next few months. I'd say 12th is a good place, since we could finish anywhere from 13th to 9th.

Scott Burnside, no disrespect, but watch a Caps game and maybe get your story straight.