Capitals (20-21-7) vs. Hurricanes (25-19-6): Keys to the Games...

#1. Don't Fall Behind
There are two factors working against Washington in this key. The first is that they are terrible at coming from behind. The second is that Carolina never falls off a lead. The Capitals have only won two of their 19 games when trailing after one period (.192 win percent) and only won two of 21 when trailing at the second intermission (.095 win percent). Also, when trailing first, the Caps are 5-17-4 (.192 win percent, 4th worst in league). Compare that to when the Caps score first, they are 15-4-3 (.682 win percentage). Scoring the first goal and getting a lead early usually gives the Caps a confidence boost, while falling behind early puts them behind the eight ball.
But for a team that has a hard time coming back from early deficits, Carolina is the worst team to be facing. The Hurricanes are best in the league both in winning percentage when leading after the 1st period (.941) and the 2nd (1.000). In fact, Carolina has never fallen in regulation in a game where they lead after the first period. They only have one overtime/shootout loss where they led after the first period. In addition, when Carolina scores first they have a winning percentage that is fourth best in the league (.789). When trailing first, they are a mediocre .323. The good news, for the Caps, is that Carolina has only led first in 19 of their 50 games, as opposed to the Capitals who have scored first 22 times of 48.
So the first period will be a critical one. If the Caps can score first and keep a lead into the second, they will have a good chance. If Carolina scores first and gets a lead entering the intermission, Washington's already in a deep pit. The saving grace for Washington is that Carolina has an even goals for to against ratio for the first period. The 'Canes have scored 38 goals in the first (21st in the league) and allowed 38 (9th in the league). By comparison, the Caps also have an even goals for:against ratio with 50 goals for (6th in league) versus 50 against (5th worst). So the scoring battle looks to be a coin flip. The Caps'll have to outwork Carolina to grab the early edge.
#2. 'Canes Spread Out Attack
Unfortunately for the Capitals, their defensive strategy cannot simply key into one player on Carolina to shut him down (as many teams would do to Ovechkin). Three different Hurricanes lead the teams in the three offensive categories. Ray Whitney leads the team in points (53), Rod Brind'Amour leads the team in assists (39) and Justin Williams leads the team in goals (23).
None of these stats look particularly frightening, but the fact that so many guys are so close to them in scoring is what makes that Carolina offense so terrifying. Carolina has...
- Three 20+ goal scorers (Williams 23, Staal 22, Cole 21)
- Three other 10+ goal scorers (Whitney 19, Walker 16, Brind'Amour 13)
- They have two players with 50+ points (Brind'Amour and Whitney)
- Three others with 40+ points (Williams, Cole, Staal)
- They have seven total players with 20+ points
This spread out offense has worked wonders for the Hurricanes. They are 12th in the league in goals/game (3.06) and average 30.6 shots per game. Their only "flaw" on offense is their power play where they are only 16.4% effective. Washington needs to play a solid offensive game to shut down this explosive offensive core.
#3. Pad the Lead
Unfortunately for the Caps, they have been on the wrong side of close games. In one-goal games, the Capitals only have a .294 win percentage (3rd worst in the league). Luckily, the Caps have only played in 17 one-goal games. But while they lose a lot of close games, they also don't do well in wide margin games. They've lost 14 of 24 games in which the goal differential was 3 goals. But they have won 10 of those games, as opposed to the mere 5 they've won in one goal games.
But the Caps tend to do better in two goal games. They have 5 wins in 7 games when the goal differential is 2. The fact is that the Caps tend to win more games when the lead is bigger. That doesn't offset the fact that they also lose a lot of blowouts. If the Caps can avoid those close games, or at least keep their leads bigger, they will have a much better chance of winning.
Players to Watch For...
Carolina: Cam Ward
For 'Canes goaltender Cam Ward, the last few games before the All-Star break were a jarring experience. After two straight games with save percentages over .940 (wins against the Islanders and Leafs) Ward feel off the sort of play that won him the Conn Smythe Trophy last June. Following a no-decision with the Panthers in which he allowed 3 goals on 31 shots, Ward gave up 8 goals in 55 total shots in his next two games (both OT/shootout losses to Atlanta and Tampa). Now, after the All-Star break, Ward looks to regain his stellar play against the Capitals. Against Washington, Ward's got a 2.96 GAA and .903 save percentage. His numbers against Washington have been slightly better this year (2.50 GAA, .909 save percent), but for the 'Canes to win, Ward must be stellar.
Washington: Olie Kolzig
Olie Kolzig has also had a stretch before the break marked by inconsistent play. In the five games before the break, Kolzig allowed 5 goals twice but also had two games with save percentages above .935. This has been the trend for Kolzig and his inconsistent defensive corps. Now, with Brian Pothier out, the Caps will need more young defensemen to step in.
As highlighted by my column yesterday, the Caps defense is still lacking. Kolzig has had great sucess against Carolina in his career 2.15 GAA, .925 save percentage and if the Caps want to win, Kolzig will have to be a stabilizing force.