Capitals Offense: The Numbers Only Tell Half the Story
Welcome to part 1 of my series on evaluating the Capitals mid-way through the season in the main areas: offense, defense, special teams, and goaltending. In this new series, I'll attempt to break down the Capitals in each of these categories based on the statistics, and my observations of nearly 10 Capitals games I saw during my winter break.
#1. Offense
- 3.10 goals/game (9th in league)
- 83 5 on 5 goals (15th in league)
- 26.8 shots per game (22nd in league)
- 50 1st period goals, 49 2nd period goals, 47 3rd period goals
- .682 win percentage when scoring first (17th in league)
- .192 win percent when trailing first (27th in league)
- Score first in 45.83% of games
- Two players with 25+ goals (Ovechkin, Semin)
- Three other players with 10+ goals (Clark, Zubrus, Pettinger)
- Team goal median: 2 goals (league goal median: 3 goals)
- Three players with 40+ points (Ovechkin, Semin, Zubrus)
- Two others with 20+ points (Clark, Pettinger)
The numbers don't lie, the Caps have been darn good on offense this year. That's to be expected with a player like Alex Ovechkin on your roster, but Alex Semin has been an incredible "addition." The only problem is that beyond those two, along with the other three top scorers mentioned, the team is not very deep. By observation, the team tends to score most of its goals on the fly (breakaways, 2 on 1s). The biggest problem the Caps have offensively is that their defensemen cannot make a decent breakout pass, which leads to the Caps getting bogged down in the neutral zone. Ultimately, in the offensive zone, the Capitals strategy mainly consists of dump-and-chase and cycling the puck. These problems are both affected by what I believe is the Capital's achilles heel: passing.
If you've watched a number of Capitals games, one thing about their offense is evident: they can't pass. I've seen too many defensemen fail to hang onto the puck at the point on the power play or mishandle the puck at the blue line. There have been many times the Caps have had odd-man rushes, but were spoiled by a poor pass or inability to catch passes. It's especially problematic with the defensemen, but the forwards also have been known to misplay the puck. In addition, the Capitals tend to have passes broken up because they either take to long holding the puck or don't make a crisp enough pass. All this means that the Caps frequently have to dump the puck into the zone, rather than pass it in (as almost all other teams can do).
In addition, the team must cycle the puck because they cannot space themselves accordingly. They can't make a pass to the point and then set up a rotating offense where they can get people into shooting channels. Generally, when the Caps have the puck in the offensive zone, the puck will go into the corner. Two Caps players will converge on the puck along with the defenseman. One player will wait alongside the scrum, typically below the goal line, waiting for the puck to squirt loose to them. The near defenseman pinches down and the far defenseman moves toward the center.
Now, there are two major problems with this setup. #1 is that there is nobody on the far side of the ice, which allows the other team to swing the puck to the boards on the other side where their far-side defenseman can pick up the puck and bring it out. Or they'll simply fling the puck around the boards and past our far-side defender, who is too far out of position to keep the puck in. It's happened many times before. But the second problem is even more troubling...no one is in the slot!!! So if and when the Caps do come out of that scrum in the corner with the puck, they have virtually no options. If it, say, squirts to the guy waiting below the goal line, all he can do is turn away from the scrum to end up behind the net with nobody to pass to besides the far side defenseman. But typically, the other team's defeseman, who has been camping out in front of the net, will pinch down, pin the player with the puck behind the net and take it.
A simple remedy to this solution is to not have two people converge on the puck. It is a waste of ice to have two of our players on top of each other (particularly when there is one other guy three feet away). Instead, the winger on the near side (the side which the puck is on) should pin the puck on the boards. The center should wait for the puck to squirt out, the defensemen should be where they were and the far-side wing should move to the slot, wating for a centering pass from either the center or near-side wing. Another option is to have the far-side defenseman pinch in and move to the high slot (again, waiting for the pass) and have the three forwards converge on the puck and get it to one of the defensemen. Either way, the Caps cannot continue to have their three forwards occupying a five-foot area while their defensemen hang out in la-la land.
While the Caps offense has been good, it has not been great. If the Caps could be more efficient with the puck in their offensive zone, they could generate more scoring opportunities and draw more penalties.
Stay Tuned: Tomorrow...DEFENSE!
#1. Offense
- 3.10 goals/game (9th in league)
- 83 5 on 5 goals (15th in league)
- 26.8 shots per game (22nd in league)
- 50 1st period goals, 49 2nd period goals, 47 3rd period goals
- .682 win percentage when scoring first (17th in league)
- .192 win percent when trailing first (27th in league)
- Score first in 45.83% of games
- Two players with 25+ goals (Ovechkin, Semin)
- Three other players with 10+ goals (Clark, Zubrus, Pettinger)
- Team goal median: 2 goals (league goal median: 3 goals)
- Three players with 40+ points (Ovechkin, Semin, Zubrus)
- Two others with 20+ points (Clark, Pettinger)
The numbers don't lie, the Caps have been darn good on offense this year. That's to be expected with a player like Alex Ovechkin on your roster, but Alex Semin has been an incredible "addition." The only problem is that beyond those two, along with the other three top scorers mentioned, the team is not very deep. By observation, the team tends to score most of its goals on the fly (breakaways, 2 on 1s). The biggest problem the Caps have offensively is that their defensemen cannot make a decent breakout pass, which leads to the Caps getting bogged down in the neutral zone. Ultimately, in the offensive zone, the Capitals strategy mainly consists of dump-and-chase and cycling the puck. These problems are both affected by what I believe is the Capital's achilles heel: passing.
If you've watched a number of Capitals games, one thing about their offense is evident: they can't pass. I've seen too many defensemen fail to hang onto the puck at the point on the power play or mishandle the puck at the blue line. There have been many times the Caps have had odd-man rushes, but were spoiled by a poor pass or inability to catch passes. It's especially problematic with the defensemen, but the forwards also have been known to misplay the puck. In addition, the Capitals tend to have passes broken up because they either take to long holding the puck or don't make a crisp enough pass. All this means that the Caps frequently have to dump the puck into the zone, rather than pass it in (as almost all other teams can do).
In addition, the team must cycle the puck because they cannot space themselves accordingly. They can't make a pass to the point and then set up a rotating offense where they can get people into shooting channels. Generally, when the Caps have the puck in the offensive zone, the puck will go into the corner. Two Caps players will converge on the puck along with the defenseman. One player will wait alongside the scrum, typically below the goal line, waiting for the puck to squirt loose to them. The near defenseman pinches down and the far defenseman moves toward the center.
Now, there are two major problems with this setup. #1 is that there is nobody on the far side of the ice, which allows the other team to swing the puck to the boards on the other side where their far-side defenseman can pick up the puck and bring it out. Or they'll simply fling the puck around the boards and past our far-side defender, who is too far out of position to keep the puck in. It's happened many times before. But the second problem is even more troubling...no one is in the slot!!! So if and when the Caps do come out of that scrum in the corner with the puck, they have virtually no options. If it, say, squirts to the guy waiting below the goal line, all he can do is turn away from the scrum to end up behind the net with nobody to pass to besides the far side defenseman. But typically, the other team's defeseman, who has been camping out in front of the net, will pinch down, pin the player with the puck behind the net and take it.
A simple remedy to this solution is to not have two people converge on the puck. It is a waste of ice to have two of our players on top of each other (particularly when there is one other guy three feet away). Instead, the winger on the near side (the side which the puck is on) should pin the puck on the boards. The center should wait for the puck to squirt out, the defensemen should be where they were and the far-side wing should move to the slot, wating for a centering pass from either the center or near-side wing. Another option is to have the far-side defenseman pinch in and move to the high slot (again, waiting for the pass) and have the three forwards converge on the puck and get it to one of the defensemen. Either way, the Caps cannot continue to have their three forwards occupying a five-foot area while their defensemen hang out in la-la land.
While the Caps offense has been good, it has not been great. If the Caps could be more efficient with the puck in their offensive zone, they could generate more scoring opportunities and draw more penalties.
Stay Tuned: Tomorrow...DEFENSE!
posted by The Jet at 4:59 PM
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