Capitals (15-10-7) vs. Lightning (14-17-2) Keys to the Game...
#1: Shoot on Denis
Tampa goaltending has been a glaring weakness for them all year. Starter Marc Denis has lost 10 of his last 11 starts and is 6-11-2 this year. His stats have been less than stellar: a 3.13 GAA and 87.8% save percentage. Against Washington, his numbers are worse (3.63 GAA; 88.7% save percentage). Remember that most of those games came when he was a member of the Columbus Blue Jackets. But this year, as an in-division foe, Denis has 1 win and a 3.61 GAA to go along with an 87.2% save percentage.
#2: Make it a Defensive Struggle for TB
Looking at the two games in which the Caps and Lightning have squared off, it's been an offensive battle both times. Tampa won the first game 6-4 and Washington won the second 5-2. Thats 17 goals combined in three games (8.5 goals scored per game). Both teams have high ranking offenses (Caps ranked 7th in the league averaging 3.19 goals for per game; Tampa ranked 8th averaging 3.12 goals for per game) and horrid defenses (Tampa ranked 22nd in the league with 3.21 goals against/game, Washington 23rd with 3.22 goals against/game). If Washington can keep Tampa off the board they will be in great position to win the game. Oh, and limiting Tampa to under 40 shots would help out Olie Kolzig (the 'Ning averages 42.5 shots against Olie this year).
#3: Second Period Lead is HUGE!
Washington continues to be suspect to late game collapses. Their win percentage difference when they lead in the second intermission to when they lead in the first is 176 percentage points (.864 compared to .688). By comparison, Tampa is abysmal not only when trailing after two, but when trailing after one! When behind after one period, Tampa Bay only wins .267 percent of their games, same as when they trail after the second. So going into the third with a lead (hopefully, a commanding lead as they did in their last game against the Lightning) will be critical.
Players to Watch...
Tampa Bay: Martin St. Louis
St. Louis is tied with Ovechkin and Jason Spezza for 4th on the points leaderboard (43 points). In his career, St. Louis has bloomed in recent years, and has become a perennial Cap-killer. No one will forget his overtime goal on Easter Sunday in 2003 that ended the Capitals playoff run (in the first round, 4-2). St. Louis has 9 goals and 22 points in his 30 game career against Washington, but has been hot of late, with 3 goals in his last 3 games. Can he lead the Lightning out of their losing streak against DC?
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
In an offensive struggle, there's no one Caps fans would rather have on the ice than Ovie. As mentioned, Ovechkin is 4th in the NHL with 43 points, but he also leads the league in goals with 22 (tied with Hossa and Shanahan). He does have 7 goals and 13 points in 10 games against Tampa, but the most staggering statistics are the ones he's put up recently. 13 multi-point games, points in 25 of 31 games (including 10 of last 11). Not to mention in his 7 game scoring streak he's amounted 6 goals and 16 points. Will he keep his scoring streak alive?
Tampa goaltending has been a glaring weakness for them all year. Starter Marc Denis has lost 10 of his last 11 starts and is 6-11-2 this year. His stats have been less than stellar: a 3.13 GAA and 87.8% save percentage. Against Washington, his numbers are worse (3.63 GAA; 88.7% save percentage). Remember that most of those games came when he was a member of the Columbus Blue Jackets. But this year, as an in-division foe, Denis has 1 win and a 3.61 GAA to go along with an 87.2% save percentage.
#2: Make it a Defensive Struggle for TB
Looking at the two games in which the Caps and Lightning have squared off, it's been an offensive battle both times. Tampa won the first game 6-4 and Washington won the second 5-2. Thats 17 goals combined in three games (8.5 goals scored per game). Both teams have high ranking offenses (Caps ranked 7th in the league averaging 3.19 goals for per game; Tampa ranked 8th averaging 3.12 goals for per game) and horrid defenses (Tampa ranked 22nd in the league with 3.21 goals against/game, Washington 23rd with 3.22 goals against/game). If Washington can keep Tampa off the board they will be in great position to win the game. Oh, and limiting Tampa to under 40 shots would help out Olie Kolzig (the 'Ning averages 42.5 shots against Olie this year).
#3: Second Period Lead is HUGE!
Washington continues to be suspect to late game collapses. Their win percentage difference when they lead in the second intermission to when they lead in the first is 176 percentage points (.864 compared to .688). By comparison, Tampa is abysmal not only when trailing after two, but when trailing after one! When behind after one period, Tampa Bay only wins .267 percent of their games, same as when they trail after the second. So going into the third with a lead (hopefully, a commanding lead as they did in their last game against the Lightning) will be critical.
Players to Watch...
Tampa Bay: Martin St. Louis
St. Louis is tied with Ovechkin and Jason Spezza for 4th on the points leaderboard (43 points). In his career, St. Louis has bloomed in recent years, and has become a perennial Cap-killer. No one will forget his overtime goal on Easter Sunday in 2003 that ended the Capitals playoff run (in the first round, 4-2). St. Louis has 9 goals and 22 points in his 30 game career against Washington, but has been hot of late, with 3 goals in his last 3 games. Can he lead the Lightning out of their losing streak against DC?
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
In an offensive struggle, there's no one Caps fans would rather have on the ice than Ovie. As mentioned, Ovechkin is 4th in the NHL with 43 points, but he also leads the league in goals with 22 (tied with Hossa and Shanahan). He does have 7 goals and 13 points in 10 games against Tampa, but the most staggering statistics are the ones he's put up recently. 13 multi-point games, points in 25 of 31 games (including 10 of last 11). Not to mention in his 7 game scoring streak he's amounted 6 goals and 16 points. Will he keep his scoring streak alive?
posted by The Jet at 5:35 AM
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