Monday, December 11, 2006

Capitals (13-10-6) vs. Penguins (12-11-5) Keys to the Game

#1: A Fleury of Shots
The Caps need to get shots on Pittsburgh's young and still spastic goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury has a GAA of 2.91 (25th in the league) and a save percentage of .905 (23rd in the league). This is probably due to the fact that Fleury has faced the 9th most shots of any goaltender in the league (Olie Kolzig, of course, has faced the third most), but also has allowed the 8th most goals (Kolzig has allowed the 10th most). It doesn't hurt either that Pittsburgh allows 31.6 shots against per game (25th in the league).

#2: Watch "Set-Up" Sid
Sidney Crosby can hurt the Caps by setting up his fellow players, particularly Evgeni Malkin (14 goals leads the team). It doesn't hurt that Crosby is second in goals with 13. Beyond those two, however, are two 22 point players (Gonchar and Recchi), but no other 10 goal scorers. By contrast, the Caps have five players with 10 or more goals and 4 players with 20+ points. The fact that the Caps scoring is spread out while Pittsburgh's is concentrated on a few players could help Washington.

#3: Dominate the Faceoff Circle
Nothing more needs to be said about Pittsburgh than that their faceoff percentage is 46.8%, worst in the league. The Caps aren't much better, winning 48.4% of faceoffs, but controlling the start of play, particularly in the offensive zone, could help them create scoring chances against the defensively hapless Penguins. Once again, it comes down to Crosby and one other guy. Both he and Dominic Moore are above 50% in the faceoff circle, but the other two lines are centered by terrible guys to take the draw. Washington's best chance is to square those two lines off against their grinding lines, who also happen to have their best faceoff winners: Boyd Gordon (52%) and Kris Beech (51.5%)

Players to Watch For...
Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby
If you haven't been paying attention throughout this preview, Sidney Crosby is the Pittsburgh Penguins. He leads the team in assists (26) points (39), and +/- (+9). He's also second (to Evgeni Malkin) in a bevy of other stats (goals, power play goals, shooting percentage). Stopping Sid will stop the Penguins. Can he face the DC crowd and come away with a victory for the Pens?
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
The rivalry is getting so much hype I just had to address it. Ovie is the snake to Crosby's mongoose (or the mongoose to his snake, I don't know animals). He leads his team with 18 goals, 17 assists, 35 points, 7 power play goals (tied with Alexander Semin), 4 game winning goals, and 152 shots. One might think that just as stopping Crosby stop the Pens, stopping Ovechkin stops the Caps. Pittsburgh did that last year when they held him to 6 points in 4 games vs. Crosby's 9. The question is, can Ovechkin lead the Caps to triumph over Pittsburgh who they went 1-3-0 against last year?

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