Capitals (19-19-7) @ Senators (26-19-2): Keys to the Game
#1. Shut Down the Kelly-Alfredsson-Heatley Line
The recently formed line of Chris Kelly, Daniel Alfredsson and Dany Heatley has been responsible for the Sens recent turnaround in points. When this line was formed, Ottawa was in dead last in the Northeast Division. That was back in December. Now, Ottawa is on a four-game winning streak and is 9-1-1 in its last 11 games. This new line has carried most of the offensive burden during the winning streak.
Heatley and Alfredsson are 1-2 in points on the Sens with 61 and 46 points, respectively. Kelly is fifth on the team with 26 points. This line also has all players in the top 10 in goals (Heatley 26, Alfredsson 15, Kelly 9). This line has combined for 133 points and 50 goals. By comparison, Washington's top line of Clark-Zubrus-Ovechkin has a combined 134 points and 60 goals. So shutting down Ottawa's top power line could tip the scale of balance in Washington's favor.
#2. A Goaltending Conundrum?
The first time these teams met this year, Ottawa chased starter Olaf Kolzig in the first period, scoring 3 goals on 7 shots. Brent Johnson then stepped in to stop all 21 shots that came his way. In that same game, Ottawa starter Martin Gerber stopped 22 of 26 in a 4-3 OT loss. In the December 6 meeting, Olie Kolzig started again, but made it through the whole 60 minutes. In that matchup Kolzig only allowed 2 goals on 37 shots, while Ottawa's Ray Emery let in 6 on 37.
So in only two meetings this season, four goaltendenders have played, with two different goaltenders getting wins (for Washington) and losses (Ottawa). For these four goalies, their stats in the games against their season averages makes choosing a starter for this game incredibly difficult.
- O. Kolzig - 88.6% save percent, 5.5 GAA (90.8%, 3.15)
- B. Johnson - 100.0% save percent, 0.0 GAA (89.2%, 3.58)
- R. Emery - 83.7% save percent, 6.0 GAA (91.9%, 2.55)
- M. Gerber - 84.6% save percent, 4.0 GAA (89.5%, 3.15)
The anounced starters for tonight are Johnson and Emery, but the question remains: how will the goaltenders fare?
#3. Third Period Comeback
Ottawa is and has been (as evidenced by their 3 goal collapse to Washington in November) a team suceptible to comebacks. They are 12th in the league in terms of winning percentage when leading after the first period (.810) but they are 22nd in terms of winning when they have a lead going into the third period (.792). But the problem is that they are following a disturbing trend of teams that find it harder to hold onto a lead as the game goes on (Dallas, Buffalo, and Boston also rest on this list).
This could be due to two possiblities: they score most of their goals in the first period, and allow more goals in the latter stages of the game, or they get a slight lead that they carry into the third and give up a few goals to lose. The fact is that Ottawa is 4th in the league in goals scored in the first period (48) and 24th in goals allowed (34). They are still 4th in goals scored in the second (60) and 7th in goals for in the third period (51). But they are 6th in goals allowed in the second (52) and 13th in third period goals against (46). This suggests that Ottawa holds slight leads entering the third and then loses them in the period where they score the least and allow a lot of goals. For Washington to win, they must continue to perservere late into the game.
Players to Watch For...
Ottawa: Dany Heatley
Heatley is a member of that new unstoppable top line for the Sens. He is currently on a two-game multi-point streak and a 4-game point streak in which he amassed 5 goals and 11 points. In his career against the Caps, he has 20 points in 19 games including 6 goals. All in all, Heatley spells trouble for the Capitals if they can't contain the man leading the Sens with 61 points and 28 goals.
Washington: Brent Johnson
For Johnson, it's always a matter of who will show up for the game: Jekyll or Hyde. When Johnny's on, he can be spectacular, but when he's off, he looks positively amatuerish. In his last three games he's allowed a combined 10 goals on 43 shots (a meager .767 save percentage). Two of those games were losses, one was a no decision. Before that, he had won 2 in a row with a combined save percentage of .924. His season streaks look like this:
O-O-L; W-W; L-O-L; W-W; L-L
It would seem that Johnny is set for an OT loss tonight, but the streaking Sens might be his saviors. In his career against Ottawa, Johnson has 3 wins, a 0.91 GAA and a .972 save percentage. If his good side shows up tonight, the Caps could put one up in the win column.
The recently formed line of Chris Kelly, Daniel Alfredsson and Dany Heatley has been responsible for the Sens recent turnaround in points. When this line was formed, Ottawa was in dead last in the Northeast Division. That was back in December. Now, Ottawa is on a four-game winning streak and is 9-1-1 in its last 11 games. This new line has carried most of the offensive burden during the winning streak.
Heatley and Alfredsson are 1-2 in points on the Sens with 61 and 46 points, respectively. Kelly is fifth on the team with 26 points. This line also has all players in the top 10 in goals (Heatley 26, Alfredsson 15, Kelly 9). This line has combined for 133 points and 50 goals. By comparison, Washington's top line of Clark-Zubrus-Ovechkin has a combined 134 points and 60 goals. So shutting down Ottawa's top power line could tip the scale of balance in Washington's favor.
#2. A Goaltending Conundrum?
The first time these teams met this year, Ottawa chased starter Olaf Kolzig in the first period, scoring 3 goals on 7 shots. Brent Johnson then stepped in to stop all 21 shots that came his way. In that same game, Ottawa starter Martin Gerber stopped 22 of 26 in a 4-3 OT loss. In the December 6 meeting, Olie Kolzig started again, but made it through the whole 60 minutes. In that matchup Kolzig only allowed 2 goals on 37 shots, while Ottawa's Ray Emery let in 6 on 37.
So in only two meetings this season, four goaltendenders have played, with two different goaltenders getting wins (for Washington) and losses (Ottawa). For these four goalies, their stats in the games against their season averages makes choosing a starter for this game incredibly difficult.
- O. Kolzig - 88.6% save percent, 5.5 GAA (90.8%, 3.15)
- B. Johnson - 100.0% save percent, 0.0 GAA (89.2%, 3.58)
- R. Emery - 83.7% save percent, 6.0 GAA (91.9%, 2.55)
- M. Gerber - 84.6% save percent, 4.0 GAA (89.5%, 3.15)
The anounced starters for tonight are Johnson and Emery, but the question remains: how will the goaltenders fare?
#3. Third Period Comeback
Ottawa is and has been (as evidenced by their 3 goal collapse to Washington in November) a team suceptible to comebacks. They are 12th in the league in terms of winning percentage when leading after the first period (.810) but they are 22nd in terms of winning when they have a lead going into the third period (.792). But the problem is that they are following a disturbing trend of teams that find it harder to hold onto a lead as the game goes on (Dallas, Buffalo, and Boston also rest on this list).
This could be due to two possiblities: they score most of their goals in the first period, and allow more goals in the latter stages of the game, or they get a slight lead that they carry into the third and give up a few goals to lose. The fact is that Ottawa is 4th in the league in goals scored in the first period (48) and 24th in goals allowed (34). They are still 4th in goals scored in the second (60) and 7th in goals for in the third period (51). But they are 6th in goals allowed in the second (52) and 13th in third period goals against (46). This suggests that Ottawa holds slight leads entering the third and then loses them in the period where they score the least and allow a lot of goals. For Washington to win, they must continue to perservere late into the game.
Players to Watch For...
Ottawa: Dany Heatley
Heatley is a member of that new unstoppable top line for the Sens. He is currently on a two-game multi-point streak and a 4-game point streak in which he amassed 5 goals and 11 points. In his career against the Caps, he has 20 points in 19 games including 6 goals. All in all, Heatley spells trouble for the Capitals if they can't contain the man leading the Sens with 61 points and 28 goals.
Washington: Brent Johnson
For Johnson, it's always a matter of who will show up for the game: Jekyll or Hyde. When Johnny's on, he can be spectacular, but when he's off, he looks positively amatuerish. In his last three games he's allowed a combined 10 goals on 43 shots (a meager .767 save percentage). Two of those games were losses, one was a no decision. Before that, he had won 2 in a row with a combined save percentage of .924. His season streaks look like this:
O-O-L; W-W; L-O-L; W-W; L-L
It would seem that Johnny is set for an OT loss tonight, but the streaking Sens might be his saviors. In his career against Ottawa, Johnson has 3 wins, a 0.91 GAA and a .972 save percentage. If his good side shows up tonight, the Caps could put one up in the win column.
posted by The Jet at 7:19 AM
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