Thursday, February 01, 2007

Capitals (21-23-7) @ Panthers (19-23-10): Keys to the Game

#1. Score First, Score Early
Caps fans will basically be able to tell within the first 20 minutes of the game if the Capitals have a fighting shot. They've been outscored 31-16 in the first period during their 6-13-0 run since December 16. In those six wins they've amassed, they've scored first 4 times, but only trailed at the end of the first once. Getting an early jump on the Panthers could be key, since they have a .226 win percentage when trailing first (26th in the league) and have fallen behind first in 31 of their 52 games.
But if the Caps cannot strike early and first, they will be in for a bad night. They are, themselves, 5-19-4 when trailing first (.179 win percentage is 27th in the league) and they are only 2-16-3 when trailing after the first period (.095 win percentage is 3rd worst in the NHL).
The saving grace: Florida has only led after the first period in 14 games.

#2. Kolzig Is the Man
The Panthers and Caps have split the season series, 2-2. In the two games that the Capitals won, Olie Kolzig was the first star and has made a combined 78 saves on 81 shots in those wins. In the games they lost, 76 saves on 82 shots. So Kolzig has been solid in all the games against Florida. In fact, in his career, Kolzig has a 22-16-3-2 record against Florida, a 2.33 GAA and .924 save percentage.
The Caps have averaged about 41 shots against when playing Florida. They will have to keep that total down, but since they haven't been successful at all this year, Kolzig will have to be superb. The good news is that this year against Florida he has a .933 save percentage.

#3. A High Scoring Affair
In the games between the Caps and Cats, the winning team has averaged 5 goals while the losing team has averaged just under 2. The difference in how the teams play is critical in determining who wins those games. Typically, the teams that come out of the gate firing will win these games. Usually one team gets off to a good start while the other comes out flat. If the Caps can avoid coming out flat like they did against Ottawa, they can have a shot at success.

Players to Watch for...
Florida: Ed Belfour
Eddie "the Eagle" is responsible for both of Florida's wins over the Caps. He has 2 wins against the Caps this year, as well as a no-decision (the loss was credited to Alex Auld). In his career against Washington, he has a 20-8-2-0 record with a 2.46 GAA and a .898 save percentage. This year, he's allowed 5 goals on a mere 49 shots, but he still has the ability to backstop the Cats to a win.
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
The Capitals are 2-7-0 in the 9 games that Ovechkin doesn't register a point. That's right, he's scored points in all but 9 games (thats 42 out of 51 games). Ovie has 12 points in 12 career games against Florida, including 4 goals. He is currently on a 3 game goal-scoring streak and a 12 game point-streak. Considering he's scored 1 goal and 3 assists in 4 games against Florida this year, its a safe bet that he'll add another point tonight.

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